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Industrials Sector Rating: Marketperform


Brad Sorensen

CFA, Managing Director of Market & Sector Analysis, Schwab Center for Financial Research

Brad Sorensen heads market and sector analysis for the Schwab Center for Financial Research and writes for several Schwab publications. He is a member of Schwab's Investment Strategy Council.

Before joining Schwab in 2004, he was a senior analyst at AMG Guaranty Trust, where he designed portfolio strategies for high-net-worth individuals. Sorensen graduated from the University of Colorado with a bachelor's degree in finance and master's degrees in business administration and finance. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst charterholder.

March 05, 2019

Member for

2 years 6 months
Submitted by Site Factory admin on March 5, 2019
Industrials Sector

Industrials sector overview

Global manufacturing appears to be deteriorating somewhat, while U.S. manufacturing remains in expansionary territory. However, concerns about trade disputes could put a damper on the group.

Market outlook for the industrials sector

Global manufacturing largely remains positive, but growth rates have slowed, with recent purchasing managers’ index readings in most major countries still in expansion territory, but slipping from their highs. However, trade issues have continued between the U.S. and China, and that could threaten the profitability of this very globally oriented sector (45% of the sector’s revenue comes from foreign sources, according to Strategas Research). While the China situation has appeared to improve, at least until the recent threat of rising tariffs from President Donald Trump, and there have been some positive trade developments, in our view, tariffs on EU autos are a potential negative, while getting the USMCA through Congress could be tougher than most investors are looking for at this point.

In the U.S., the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing survey increased our concern a bit by falling to 52.8 in April. Meanwhile, the forward-looking new order component also fell, moving to 51.7 from 57.4, as manufacturers appeared to become antsy regarding the ongoing China-U.S. trade dispute, and that was before this recent escalation in tensions. There were hopes at the beginning of last year that fiscal stimulus would be forthcoming, and there were reports (Reuters) that the president and Democratic leadership “agreed” to a $2 trillion infrastructure agreement. Stocks in this group reacted very little to this announcement, indicating to us skepticism among companies as funding issues were left unanswered.

Overall, we have concerns but they're somewhat balanced out, which results in our relatively neutral view.

Factors that may affect the industrials sector

Positive factors for the industrials sector include:

  • Potential productivity gains: Corporate balance sheets remain relatively cash-rich, which should help push management teams to invest in new, more-efficient equipment to help offset weaker productivity.
  • Room for growth: Relatively low manufacturing inventories signal the possibility of a demand-inspired rebuilding phase.

Negative factors for industrials include:

  • More aggressive Federal Reserve action: Should inflation start to reach concerning levels, the central bank could reverse course and be forced to reinstate rate hikes, which would likely dent industrial shares.
  • Trade concerns: As trade dispute rhetoric continues, the possibility still exists that a damaging trade dispute could ensue.

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