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Real Estate Sector Rating: Marketperform

By

Brad Sorensen

photo
CFA, Managing Director of Market & Sector Analysis, Schwab Center for Financial Research

Brad Sorensen heads market and sector analysis for the Schwab Center for Financial Research and writes for several Schwab publications. He is a member of Schwab's Investment Strategy Council.

Before joining Schwab in 2004, he was a senior analyst at AMG Guaranty Trust, where he designed portfolio strategies for high-net-worth individuals. Sorensen graduated from the University of Colorado with a bachelor's degree in finance and master's degrees in business administration and finance. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst charterholder.

March 05, 2019

Member for

2 years 6 months
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Submitted by Site Factory admin on March 5, 2019
Real estate sector

Real estate sector overview

Low interest rates can make dividend-paying equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) more attractive, a factor that has supported them in recent years. Apartment and office markets have been generally strong, supporting rents; however, supply is rising, which could pressure profitability. Also, an ongoing shift away from brick-and-mortar retailers could pressure mall REITs, but that story seems well known. We recently upgraded the sector to marketperform.

Market outlook for the real estate sector

The real estate sector has been the poster child of market performance over the past year as it has done better generally when interest rates have risen, while occasional concerns over apartment and mall demand appear to have dented performance. It’s that rough balance of the risk and return characteristics that leads us to keep our marketperform rating on the group.

There are still areas for concern, but in our minds fewer than a few months ago. For instance, apartment demand has been strong and rental rates have risen—but as often happens, businesses have seen a need and rushed to fill it, which could result in an eventual oversupply in the apartment area. Retail REITs also face some headwinds, but, as mentioned, this is an area on which we’re becoming more positive. As longtime readers of this publication know, I am not a believer in the “death of brick-and-mortar” story that seems to be told quite often. From media reports you would think online sales have completely overtaken brick and mortar, but e-commerce made up only about 10.2% of total retail sales at the end of Q1, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

One last major concern has been reduced. REITs have been able to borrow money at low rates in order to increase their holdings and potentially their income. Rates rose but have since backed off, with the 10-year Treasury yields moving well below the 3% level. That’s still low by historical levels, but a renewed move higher would cause us more concern.

Factors that may affect the real estate sector

Positive factors for the real estate sector include:

  • Low interest rates: Low rates have enabled real estate investors to buy property with relatively "cheap" money, which provides the potential for greater income.
  • Expanding economy: An expanding U.S. economy typically helps the real estate area, as rental rates increase for apartments, retail and office buildings.
  • Apartment trends: Due to the financial crisis and housing crash, as well as demographic factors, demand for apartments has been strong, supporting rental rates and benefiting those companies that have a stake in that arena.

 

Negative factors for the real estate sector include:

  • Resumption of rising interest rates: Higher rates would likely raise the cost of financing, and could make the yield provided by the group less attractive.
  • Apartment trends—part 2: This has been a positive factor, but we may be at an inflection point, where supply starts to exceed demand and millennials start to be more attracted to houses.
  • Changing consumer: There has been a move toward online shopping, away from brick-and-mortar stores, which could hurt certain mall-related investments as department stores pare back the number of locations.

 

Clients can see our top-rated stocks in the real estate sector.

Want to learn more about a specific sector?  Click on a link below for more information or visit Schwab Sector Views to see how they compare.

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