2024 Election: Latest Insights from Schwab Experts

October 29, 2024

Wondering how the upcoming U.S. election might affect your portfolio? Schwab experts share their views on Washington, financial markets, tax policy, and more.

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When it comes to the 2024 U.S. election, the noise and uncertainty can feel deafening. In our view, long-term investors should ignore the noise and continue to focus on their goals and financial plans. Presidential elections historically have had very little impact on markets—stocks, for example, are more influenced by corporate earnings, monetary policy, and economic data than the election outcome.

Markets have historically rewarded long-term investors regardless of the presidential party

Chart shows hypothetical investment of $1 in 1960 growing regardless of who was president.

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Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research with data provided by Morningstar, Inc.

The chart above shows the growth of $1 invested in a hypothetical portfolio that tracks the Ibbotson US Large Stock Index on January 1^st, 1961. January returns in inauguration years are assumed to be under the party that is being inaugurated. Returns include reinvestment of dividends and interest. The example is hypothetical and provided for illustrative purposes only. It is not intended to represent a specific investment product. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes please see Schwab.com/IndexDefinitions. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. *YTD as of 6/30/2024

That said, the balance of power in Congress may have a significant effect on issues that matter to investors, such as tax policy, tariffs, the federal debt ceiling, relations with trading partners such as China, and more. To help you stay informed, we've compiled all our election coverage here. We'll keep this page updated, so check back for the latest insights from Schwab experts.

What to watch

What to Watch as the 2024 Election Approaches: See what Michael Townsend, Charles Schwab's managing director for legislative and regulatory affairs, is keeping his eyes on this election cycle, especially how Congressional results could impact the debt limit and taxes.

Party in the USA: Election Facts: Find out what Schwab Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders and Senior Investment Strategist Kevin Gordon view as an effective election-year investing strategy after sifting through the data about how the party in power has affected stock market performance.

Schwab Market Update: Check out daily commentary from Schwab's Head Trading & Derivatives Strategist Joe Mazzola for the latest market news each day.

WashingtonWise podcast: Listen to the latest analysis and interviews in Charles Schwab’s government-focused podcast hosted by Michael Townsend. It's Schwab's non-partisan view of how news and policies from Washington impact investors.

Financial Decoder podcast: Join the "How Do You Gauge the Impact of Washington on Your Finances?" episode to hear Mark Riepe, head of the Schwab Center for Financial Research, and Michael Townsend discuss the cognitive and emotional biases that influence political decision-making and unpack the gap between campaign promises and legislative realities.

October Market Snapshot: See how markets have historically performed during election years in this video from Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders.

Trading

If you're looking to take advantage of market movements around the election, check out our coverage on trading strategies and the thinkorswim^® trading platform.

A Trader's View on Options Volatility & Elections: Learn options strategies to potentially harness market volatility around the election.

Grab Your Coffee: Election Night, thinkorswim, and You: Learn tips for how to use thinkorswim to find the proverbial needle among the hay on election night. This article offers four tips on how to use thinkorswim in your election night trading.

Taxes

2024 Election: A Look at Candidates' Tax Proposals: Learn who actually sets tax law and how tax policy proposals by presidential candidates may affect investors.

The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.

Options carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Certain requirements must be met to trade options through Schwab. Please read the Options Disclosure Document titled "Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options" before considering any option transaction.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.

The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions. 

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