Looking to the Futures

April Live Cattle Futures (/LEJ26) settled -0.775 cents lower to 237.42. No cash market activity has been established for this week. Last week, the Texas Panhandle reported mostly at 245 for live purchases, Kansas were mostly 245 for live purchases, and Nebraska live purchases were mostly 240, with dressed purchases at 378. The price of boxed beef was lower for both choice, (-0.21, 357.55) and select cuts (-2.45, 362.90). 

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report released monthly by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) provides official forecasts for production, supply, demand, and prices. This month’s report highlighted beef production is estimated to increase in number of slaughtered steers, heifers, cows, and heavier dressed carcass weight. Beef imports are estimated to uptick on strong demand for lean processing beef and spurred by the recent agreement between U.S. and Argentina. Exports are estimated to remain unchanged, and the fed-cattle prices are estimated to remain elevated from last year.

U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) leaders discussed the continued lockout for U.S. beef in the China market at a cattle industry gathering in Nashville, Tennessee for the 2026 Cattle Industry Convention. Erin Borror, USMEF Vice President of Economic Analysis, addressed the industries questions about regaining access to the Chinese market and explained there had been little progress made. China continues to deny renewal registrations for U.S. beef production and cold storage facilities. 

This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released January non-farm payrolls which were delayed due to the partial government shutdown. The expectation was for the latest jobs report to be neutral. The Dow Jones consensus estimated gain of 55,000 compared to a December increase of 50,000.  U.S. payrolls rose by 130,000 in January and the unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3%, below the unchanged forecast from December estimate of 4.4%. 

BLS also released final benchmark revisions for the year prior to March 2025. Initial counts revised lower by a total of 898,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis. Which was a bit lower than the 911,000 figure for the initial estimate in September.

Key Agricultural Reports:

Feb 19: Livestock, Dairy, Poultry Outlook

Feb 20: Cattle on Feed Report

Feb 24: Cold Storage Report

Live Cattle futures are 4.5% below the October 16 high, but well off the low from the pullback in November. Since the low on November 25, Live Cattle prices have rallied higher. The 9-day simple moving average (SMA - white) and 21-day exponential moving average (EMA - red) have both successfully crossed over the 50-day SMA (green). The Daily Livestock Technical Summary from The Hightower Report shows that the close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for a trend (the 9-day SMA currently sits at 237.792). The next downside objective is 235.770. The next area of resistance is around 238.400 and 239.65, while 1st support hits today at 236.47 and below there at 235.770. The relative strength Index has moved close to neutral at 54.7894.

9-Day SMA                   237.792

21-Day SMA                 231.766

50-Day SMA                 231.766

14-Day RSI                     54.7894%

• MBA Mortgage Applications  7:00 AM ET
• Jobs Data – Delayed  8:30 AM ET
• Fed’s Schmid/Bowman Speak  10:10 AM ET
• Oil Inventories  10:30 AM ET
• 10-Year Note Auction  1:00 PM ET
• Treasury Statement  2:00 PM ET
• Fed’s Hammack Speaks  4:00 PM ET

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