Looking to the Futures

Soybean prices leveled off to start the week following a significant rally last week. China remains the largest destination for soybean shipments, but recent reports show a decline from last week. The USDA export sales data from last week shows commitments were down from the same period last year. The monthly WASDE data will be released today and expectations show no major changes to the US soybean stocks number. 

Yesterday, the Export Inspections report indicated a week-over-week decline of 1.136 MMT for soybeans shipped in the week ending February 5^th. This data indicates a drop of -13.8% from the previous week and a -3.5% decrease from the same time last year. China remains the largest destination of soybeans with 747,198 MT of soybeans shipped. The report also outlined 92,655 MT shipped to Mexico and 57,087 MT shipped to Germany. The marketing year total is now at 23.136 MMT of soybeans shipped since September, a -34.4% decline from the same period last year. 

Last Thursday's USDA report showed export sales data of soybean commitments at 34.29 million MT, a decrease of 20% from the same time last year. USDA reported a private export sale of 264,000 MT of soybeans sent to China this morning.

Last week, President Trump announced that China was considering a purchase of an additional 8 million MT of US soybeans in addition to their previous commitments. This would have brought the total projections to 20 million MT for the season and led to a significant rally in soybean prices last week. 

The monthly WASDE data will be released today with analysts projecting US soybean stocks at 348 million bushels versus the 380 million bushels estimate in January. Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase 1.2 MMT to 179.2 MMT with around 16% of the soybean crop already harvested. Estimates for Argentina soybean production are down -0.4 MMT to 48.1 MMT.

Looking at the daily chart for the Soybean March 2026 (/ZSH26) contract we can see that buyers stepped back on Monday after significant buying pressure last week, pushing volumes well above averages. The contract tested the 200-Day Simple Moving Average last Monday and rallied to cross the 50-Day and 20-Day SMA price points. 

The daily technical summary from Hightower Research shows support levels at 1111.75 and 1096.75 with resistance levels at 1133 and 1153.25.

According to the CFTC Commitment of Traders Report released February 3^rd, managed money traders increased their long position by +16,048 contracts and increased their short position by +6,689 contracts. Managed money traders were net long 29,153 contracts as of the time this report was published. 

The 14-Day Relative Strength Index at 66.31% indicates the contract is moving toward overbought levels. 

20-Day SMA                   1069-3

50-Day SMA                   1079-2

200-Day SMA                 1070-7

14-Day RSI                      66.31%

Implied Volatility             17.65%

Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET

Employment Cost Index 8:30 AM ET

Export Prices 8:30 AM ET

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