Looking to the Futures

Copper futures rebounded on Thursday, recovering some of the losses from Wednesday's volatile session. Active-month July futures (/HGN26) rose 0.42%, settling at 6.535. Despite often being overlooked compared to gold and silver, copper has maintained a steady upward trend so far this year. Year-to-date, gold (/GC) and silver (/SI) are up roughly 4% and 5%, respectively, while copper has gained nearly 15%.

In a year dominated by headlines around AI, data center expansion, and the conflict in Iran, copper's supply constraints and rising demand have quietly remained a key underlying theme. With the Strait of Hormuz closed for approximately 96 days as of Thursday, the transport of critical commodities has been significantly disrupted, including sulfuric acid—an essential input in copper extraction.

Nearly half of the world's seaborne sulfuric acid supply originates from Middle Eastern countries such as Iran, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, leaving the global supply chain severely strained due to the Strait's closure. This is particularly impactful for copper, as sulfuric acid is a vital secondary material used in the smelting process to separate the metal from its ore. These disruptions have compounded existing supply challenges, including reduced output at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia—the world's second-largest copper mine—which has been operating well below capacity since a landslide last September. Together, these supply shocks have added pressure to an already tightening market, while demand continues to strengthen.

On the demand side, copper remains a critical component of the ongoing AI and data center buildout. High-purity copper is essential for high-speed interconnect cables that link thousands of processors within modern data centers, effectively serving as the backbone of AI infrastructure. Its superior electrical and thermal conductivity, compatibility with power and cooling systems, and scalability make it uniquely suited for this role. As companies and governments continue to invest heavily in data center expansion, each new project locks in sustained copper demand with little indication of slowing.

Looking ahead, the copper market is awaiting clarity on a key U.S. tariff decision. Washington is expected to rule on whether to extend import tariffs to refined copper, a move that could significantly impact global supply flows. The U.S. Commerce Department's report, due by the end of June, may act as a near-term catalyst. Support for tariffs could accelerate inventory accumulation, while a decision against them may create a temporary headwind for prices.
 

On the daily chart, July copper futures (/HGN26) have posted gains in three of the past four sessions, closing just below the recent all-time high of 6.716 set on May 13th. Price tested and held the 20-day simple moving average, closing above it as well as the 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs. The 20-day continues to act as near-term support, with no close below it since May 4th.

The 14-day RSI finished at 58.7, signaling mildly bullish momentum without reaching overbought territory. Volume declined on Thursday, with 36,878 contracts traded, below the 50-day average of 43,800. 

According to the Daily Hightower Report, /HG may find support at the 6.47 and 6.37 levels, with resistance at 6.60 and 6.65. 
 

20-Day SMA:                    6.4199

50-Day SMA:                    6.0898

100-Day SMA:                  5.9703

200-Day SMA:                  5.5177

14-Day RSI:                       58.69

50-Day Volume Avg:         43,799.9

8:30 am ET- U.S. Employment Report

8:30 am ET- U.S. Unemployment Report

8:30 am ET- U.S. Hourly Wages

8:30 am ET- Hourly Wages Year Over Year

3:00 pm ET- Consumer Credit

New futures products are available to trade with a futures-approved account on all thinkorswim platforms: 

• Ripple (/XRP)
• Micro Ripple (/MXP)
• 100 OZ Silver (/SIC)
• 1 OZ Gold (/1OZ)
• Solana (/SOL)
• Micro Solana (/MSL)

Visit the Schwab.com Futures Markets page to explore the wide variety of futures contracts available for trading through Charles Schwab Futures and Forex LLC.