Looking to the Futures
Stocks Find Support
Equities stabilized on Monday after President Trump delayed planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure ahead of negotiations. Crude oil prices fell sharply following this announcement but are still well above levels seen last month. Global bond yields are lower to start the week.
President Trump directed the Department of War to temporarily delay air strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and power plants on Monday providing a reprieve to the selling pressure in equity markets over the past month. On Monday, President Trump stated that the US held productive talks on a resolution to the conflict in the Middle East. That narrative was muddied after Iran's Foreign Ministry denied that Tehran was in negotiations with the US, while acknowledging efforts to pursue a diplomatic resolution with countries in the region.
On Saturday, the Trump administration gave a 48-hour time window for Iran to fully open the Strait of Hormuz, or the US would target Iran's power infrastructure. Iran responded by indicating they would target the headquarters and assets of financial entities that buy US Treasury bonds. Over the weekend Iran carried out drone and missile attacks against 40 energy sites across nine countries in the Middle East. This morning, markets appear to be trading slightly lower as we wait for additional headlines and clarity on the situation.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have had significant effects on crude oil prices over the past month and caused concern around global supply. The IEA on March 11th released 400 million barrels from emergency oil stockpiles in order to ease global supply concerns. The EIA stated that the war against Iran is disrupting ~7.5% of global oil supply, and the conflict could cut global supply by 8 million bpd this month. Nearly 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas flows pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and the Iran's attacks on shipping in the waterway has forced Gulf producers to cut output.
Global bond yields fell to start the week with the 10-year US Treasury note yield falling -4.2 bp to 4.338%. The 10-year German bund yield dropped -6.2 bp to 2.981% and the 10-year UK gilt yield dropped -11.8 bp to 4.876%.
Technicals
Looking at the daily chart for the E Mini S&P 500 June 2026 (/ESM26) contract we can see that buying pressure pushed prices off their lows on slightly higher than average volume. The contract traded above the 200-Day Simple Moving Average intraday but was unable to close above that level. Over the past month the contract has used the 20-Day SMA price point as a resistance level.
The Daily Technical Summary from Hightower Research shows support levels at 6490.88 and 6426.44 with resistance levels at 6652.62 and 6749.93.
According to the CFTC Commitment of Traders Report released March 17th, managers have decreased their long position by -9,201 contracts and increased their short position by +2,823 contracts. Asset managers were net long 886,828 contracts as of the time this report was published.
The 14-Day Relative Strength Index at 38.67% indicates more sellers than buyers but the contract has not moved into oversold territory.
20-Day SMA 6,816.24
50-Day SMA 6,921.90
200-Day SMA 6,763.80
14-Day RSI 38.67%
Implied Volatility 21.52%.
Contract Specifications
Economic Calendar
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