Looking to the Futures

Gold continued to sell off on Monday with the dollar showing signs of strength. The Euro traded lower to start the week based on comments from ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos and a stronger dollar. Economic uncertainty in Japan has caused the yen to fall to a nearly 10-month low against the dollar. Precious metals are being undercut by a reduced likelihood of a rate cut by the FOMC during the December meeting. Gold is receiving some support from strong central bank demand, with China increasing their reserves for the 12th straight month. 

The dollar index rallied to start the week on positive economic news and carryover support from Fed presidents to keep interest rates steady. The US Nov Empire manufacturing general business conditions survey rose +8.0 to 18.7, outpacing the expected decline to 5.8. 

The euro traded lower yesterday after ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos commented that financial instability risks in the Eurozone remain elevated. However, the euro saw some support after the European Commission raised 2025 Eurozone GDP forecasts to +1.3% from a May forecast of +0.9% and Eurozone inflation forecast remained unchanged from May at +2.1%.

The yen fell yesterday on news that the Japanese economy contracted by the most in 1.5 years in Q3. Japan's Q3 GDP dropped -1.8% q/q annualized, beating expectations of -2.4%. The Q3 deflator rose +2.8% y/y, missing the expected increase of +3.1% y/y. Prime Minister Takaichi intends to put forth an ambitious stimulus package that would increase Japan's budget deficit causing concern for the government’s debt load. Japan revised the Sep industrial production data upward by +0.4 to +2.6% m/m providing some support for the yen. 

Precious metals continue to see selling pressure as expectations for another rate cut at the December's FOMC meeting dwindle. Hawkish comments made last week by Fed Presidents have pushed the likelihood of a rate cut down to 44.9% according to the CME FedWatch tool. 

In the bull camp, gold continues to receive some safe haven demand with uncertainty over US tariffs, geopolitical risk, and central bank buying. China's PBOC reserves rose to 74.09 million troy ounces in October, the 12th straight month they have increased their gold reserves. Central banks purchased 220 MT of gold in Q3, up 28% from Q2 according to the World Gold Council.

Looking at the daily chart for the Gold Futures December 2025 (/GCZ25) contract we can see the continuation of selling during yesterday’s session on moderate volume. The contract crossed the 20-Day Simple Moving Average and nearly tested the 50-Day SMA level. 

The Daily Technical Summary from Hightower Research shows support levels at 3991.8 and 3921.0 with resistance levels at 4174.2 and 4285.9.

The 14-Day Relative Strength Index at 49.28% indicates an equal number of buyers and sellers at this point.

20-Day SMA                    4,059.4

50-Day SMA                    3,972.5

200-Day SMA                  3,476.6

14-Day RSI                      49.28%

Implied Volatility             23.04%

Capacity Utilization 9:15 AM ET

Export Prices 8:30 AM ET

Export Prices ex-ag. 8:30 AM ET

Import Prices 8:30 AM ET

Import Prices ex-oil 8:30 AM ET

Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET

Initial Claims 3:10 AM ET

NAHB Housing Market Index 10:00 AM ET

Net Long-Term TIC Flows 4:00 PM ET

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