Looking to the Futures

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its highly anticipated September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday, September 11, giving grain traders an updated look at crop size, demand expectations, and projected ending stocks heading into harvest.

For corn, the headline was a smaller crop and tighter carryout. USDA lowered the 2026/27 national corn yield by 2.2 bushels per acre to 178.5 bushels per acre, cutting production by 213 million bushels to 15.8 billion. Harvested area was also reduced slightly to 88.5 million acres. On the demand side, feed and residual use was lowered by 150 million bushels to 6.0 billion, while exports were left unchanged at 3.275 billion bushels. The net result was an 86-million-bushel decline in projected ending stocks to 1.567 billion bushels, and USDA raised the season-average farm price by $0.30 to $4.80 per bushel.

Soybeans were a different story. USDA nudged the national soybean yield up 0.1 bushel to 52.8 bushels per acre and raised production by 16 million bushels to a record 4.535 billion. Beginning stocks were unchanged at 325 million bushels, while exports were raised by 25 million bushels to 1.69 billion. That demand adjustment more than offset the modest supply increase, lowering projected ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 310 million. USDA also raised the season-average soybean price by $0.60 to $12.00 per bushel, soybean meal by $30 to $340 per ton, and left soybean oil unchanged at 70 cents per pound.

The report reinforced the idea that corn balance sheets are tightening faster than soybeans, even though both crops showed lower ending stocks from August. Corn’s smaller yield estimate and unchanged export outlook gave the report a more supportive feel for grain futures, while soybeans looked more neutral as improved export demand absorbed the record production forecast. For traders, the next key question may be whether export inspections and weekly sales can validate USDA’s demand assumptions as harvest pressure begins to build.

The September WASDE could shift traders’ attention away from crop size alone and toward how much demand rationing may be required into year-end. Corn futures may remain sensitive to any further yield slippage or export strength, while soybean futures could look to China demand, crush margins, and South American planting weather for the next directional catalyst.

This morning, U.S. stock index futures moved lower in the early hours with the S&P 500® (–0.22%), the Nasdaq-100® (–0.14%), the Russell 2000® (–0.26%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average® (–0.28%) all in the red. 

In Asia, major indexes closed lower, with the Hang Seng (–1.00%), the Nikkei (–0.01%), and Shanghai (–0.54%) posting losses. 

European trading saw the FTSE (–0.18%), the DAX (–0.05%), and the CAC (–0.19%) move lower by midday.

Gold futures (/GCZ26) closed Monday’s trading session lower (–1.29%), pulling back to over one-month lows as rising U.S. rate-hike expectations pressured precious metals. Hotter inflation data, a firmer U.S. dollar, and higher Treasury yields reduced the appeal of non-yielding gold, even as Middle East tensions continued to offer some safe-haven support. With the Federal Reserve’s policy decision ahead, traders appeared reluctant to add long exposure until there is more clarity on whether policymakers will stay hawkish in response to renewed inflation pressure.

Sugar futures (/SBH27) closed lower Monday (–0.37%) after a late-session sell-off erased earlier strength in the market. Prices had found support from concerns over lower production in Thailand, weather-related crop stress in parts of Asia and Europe, and stronger crude oil prices that could encourage Brazilian mills to divert more cane toward ethanol instead of sugar. However, the reversal suggested that traders were willing to take profits after the recent rally, especially with speculative funds already leaning long and the market waiting for clearer confirmation that the 2026/27 global balance sheet is tightening.

Crude oil futures (/CLV26) started the week in the green (+1.34%), with prices trading near four-month highs as supply-risk concerns returned to the forefront. The rally followed reports of new attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, including a temporary shutdown of the East-West Pipeline, while additional shipping disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb raised concerns about Middle East export flows. With the market already tight after recent inventory draws and strong refined-product margins, traders appeared to add back a geopolitical risk premium as they weighed whether the latest disruptions could last beyond available storage buffers.

Major economic reports, trading events, and news items that could potentially impact specific futures markets:

ADP Weekly Employment Change (interest rates and stock indices)

New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (interest rates)

Futures options last trading day: September Lean Hogs

Futures last trading day: June Three-Month SOFR and September Canadian Dollar

6-week T-bills and 20-year Bonds

New futures products are available to trade with a futures-approved account on all thinkorswim platforms: 

• Ripple (/XRP)
• Micro Ripple (/MXP)
• 100 OZ Silver (/SIC)
• 1 OZ Gold (/1OZ)
• Solana (/SOL)
• Micro Solana (/MSL)

Visit the Schwab.com Futures Markets page to explore the wide variety of futures contracts available for trading through Charles Schwab Futures and Forex LLC.