Looking to the Futures
Crude and Heating Oil Continue to Move Higher Wednesday
April crude oil (/CLJ26) hit a high of 77.23 this Wednesday after being pushed higher on geopolitical risks. This comes after closing last week at just over 67.00/barrel.
Heating oil futures (/HOJ26) also traded up 1.67% on Wednesday afternoon at 3.2373/gal, just off the weekly high of 3.46 – the highest level since September of 2023. Heating oil closed last Friday the 27th at 2.59 and gapped up over the weekend, opening Monday at 2.86 following geopolitical tensions after the U.S. initiated strikes against Iran.
Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to push the oils to new levels. President Trump said the United States would provide insurance for tankers moving though the Persian Gulf to continue maritime traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz. "If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible," the president said in a social media post.
Around 20-21 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products flow though the Strait each day. This Accounts for around 20% of the global maritime oil trade, more than any other chokepoint in the world. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, and Iran are leading exporters while most of the oil is to be sent to markets in China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Alternate pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE do exist, however they are limited in capacity. In June of 2025 eia.gov estimated that about 2.6 million b/d of capacity from Saudi and UAE pipelines could be available to bypass the Strait of Hormuz in the event of a supply disruption.
The EIA petroleum status report came out this Wednesday on the 4th. Crude oil inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels from the previous week. Total inventories are about 3% below the five-year average at 439.3 million barrels. Total gasoline inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels from last week, which is about 4% above the 5-year average for this time of the year. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels and are about 3% below the 5-year average.
Fuel prices at the pump have been increasing over the past month. Data from the Energy Information Administration shows the average price of U.S regular gasoline came in at $3.015 on March 2nd. This is up from $2.937 on Feb 23rd and $2.924 on Feb 16th. The Gulf Coast saw the lowest price per gallon in March at $2.644, while the West Coast came in the highest at $4.160. Diesel prices have seen a similar effect, coming in at $3.897 on March 2nd, $3.809 on Feb 23rd and $3.711 on Feb 11th.
Technicals
Looking at a 1-year, 1-day chart on the April Crude Oil futures (/CLJ26) we can see the chart gapped up to start the current week. Also, we can note the previous high set on June 23rd. The 50-day moving average shows a value of 62.25, while the 200-day is coming in at 62.69 which indicates the potential for a golden cross. Something we have not seen over the past year. We did, however, see the 20-day cross the 200-day on February 10th and the 9-day crossed just before that on Feb 2nd. Implied Volatility comes just over 87% after a quick spike to 233% on February 24th. RSI remains above the 70-line at 77.3463.
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