Looking to the Futures
/ES futures are up by over 4% since the start of the week.
The recent pullback in crude oil has been a key market driver. May crude (/CLk26) is down just over 3.7% week to date, as easing geopolitical tensions have reduced energy related concerns, despite President Trump's comments on Tuesday regarding a potential end to the conflict in Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
Brent Crude has also pulled back so far this week. June contracts (/BZM26) are down about 6.75% this Wednesday afternoon, with 2.10% of that coming from today.
The eia.gov petroleum supply report released on April 1st showed U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.4 million barrels per day during the week ending March 27, which was about 220 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week's average, still refineries operated at 92.1% of their operational capacity last week.
On the import side, crude oil averaged 6.5 million barrels per day last week, down by 10 thousand barrels per day from the pervious week. Over the past 4 weeks, imports averaged about 6.6 million barrels per day, which is 12.8% more than the same four-week period for 2025.
Crude oil inventories increased by 5.5 million barrels from the previous week and just about 0.1% above the 5-year average for this time of the year.
Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels last week and are about 3% below the five-year average for this time of year.
Gasoline inventories decreased by just 0.6 million barrels last week and are about 4% above the 5-year average.
The national average retail price for gasoline increased to $3.99 per gallon which is $0.828 per gallon more than one year ago.
The weekly ADP report showed U.S. private sector jobs grew by 62,000 in March, exceeding the expected range of 39,000 to 40,000. "Overall hiring is steady, but job growth continues to favor certain industries, including health care. In March, this solid performance was accompanied by a boost in pay gains for job-changers." Said Dr. Nela Richardson – Chief Economist, ADP.
Another market catalyst is the strong earnings and growth seen in AI-related technology stocks.
As a reminder, Friday, April 3rd is an Exchange holiday, and the equity market will be close.
Equity futures will close at 8:15am CST on Friday the third, Energy and Metal futures will close at 4PM CST on Thursday the second and not re-open for the overnight session.
A complete list of futures holiday hours can be found on the CME's website.
Technicals
Today we have a 3-year weekly chart on the /ES June futures. Previous high came in the week of January 26th at 7043, about 1 month before the Iran war started. Since then we have crossed below the 9 and 20-day simple moving averages and hovering above the 50-day simple moving average this week.
The relative strength index bounced off the low of 36.618 last week, rebounding to 47.2125.
Implied volatility has also pulled back to 23%, after hitting the recent high last week of 30%.
Contract Specifications
Economic Calendar
Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
Intl. Trade in Goods/Services 8:30 AM ET
Fed’s Logan Speaks 10:15 AM ET
Natural Gas Inventories 10:30 AM ET
FRIDAY: March Jobs Report 8:30 AM ET
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