Looking to the Futures
Cattle Markets Under Pressure
Live Cattle Futures for the month of October (/LEV26) were lower on Tuesday, settling at 217.22 per hundredweight (cwt). While October Feeder Cattle futures moved higher settling at 330.90 p/ cwt or up 1.63 p/ cwt. Feeder and Live cattle prices remain well off the historical high for Feeder being from June 26 of 381.86 p/ cwt and Live cattle highs of 256.66 from May 1. Confirmed negotiated sales of dressed purchases were reported to be 1,466 so far this week. The last established market test in Nebraska was 345-350. For live cattle, the last market test was last week from 220-223.
The September 25th USDA Cold Storage showed that cold storage was up 1% from the prior month and up 8 percent from last year and beef in freezers were up 2% from prior month and up 5% from the prior year. The increase in cold storage stocks could provide some resistance for consumers, helping show that supply is outpacing the demand for the product or the product is backing up in the distribution chain. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations have provided a disruption in the short term according to the Texas Cattle Feeders Association, Kansas Livestock Association, and Oklahoma Cattleman's Association. Reports of delays in shipping thousands of cattle to processors and workforce disruptions to supply chains such as dairies, feedyards, transportation hubs as well as feed and grain companies. Higher oil prices drive increased operating experience for cattle producers. Rising diesel prices have pushed cattle freight up by $1 to $1.50 per loaded mile, steepening location discounts for cattle located far from major feeding centers.
U.S beef imports forecasted to rise 16% year over year from 2025. Market volatility surged following the administration's announcement to temporarily eliminate tariff-rate quotas (TRQ) for the "Others" beef-import category (primarily Brazil, along with Paraguay and Nicaragua) for September through November. The rule allows up to 100,000 metric tons (220 million lb.) per month out-of-quota. CattleFax estimates actual import volume could expand by an additional 50 to 75 million lb. per month in October and November from Brazil.
Fed cattle slaughter remains historically low, leading to lower beef production forecasts for 2026 and 2027. According to the USDA Economic Research Service, cattle prices continue to decline from spring highs, reducing price expectations through next year. The expansion of a tariff-free quota for lean beef from September through November is expected to boost U.S. imports in late 2026, and beef export projections are raised slightly for both 2026 and 2027.
Technicals
Live Cattle Futures for October remain well below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA-blue) but have consolidated over the last eight trading days. The 21-day exponential moving average (EMA-green) can be interpreted to be acting as support and the 9-day SMA (white) supports this thesis as the 9-day SMA has bounced off the 21-day EMA over that 8-day period. The 9-day SMA and 21-day EMA remain just below the 50-day moving average that currently may be acting as resistance. The relative strength index (RSI) is neutral currently at 51.3752 and implied volatility has seen an increase this week moving from 5% to 17%.
The Hightower Cattle Complex Technical Outlook indicates the next downside target is 214.12. The next area of resistance is around 218.90 and 220.90, while 1st support hits today at 215.52 and below there at 214.12.
What else to watch today
Major economic reports, trading events, and news items that could potentially impact specific futures markets:
- MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ET
- ADP Employment Report 8:15 AM ET
- GDP – Q2 Final 8:30 AM ET
- Personal Income & Outlays 8:30 AM ET
- Intl. Trade in Goods 8:30 AM ET
- Retail/Wholesale Inventories 8:30 AM ET
- Chicago PMI 9:45 AM ET
- Oil Inventories 10:30 AM ET
- Fed’s Barkin Speaks 1:30 PM ET
- Fed’s Cook Speaks 3:25 PM ET
- Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks 5:10 PM ET
- Fed’s Kashkari Speaks 6:00 PM ET
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