Stocks Little Changed on Inflation as Crude Climbs
Published as of: March 11, 2026, 9:21 a.m. ET
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| The markets | Last price | Change | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500® Index | 6,781.48 | -14.51 | -0.21% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average® | 47,706.51 | -34.29 | -0.07% |
| Nasdaq Composite® | 22,697.10 | +1.16 | +0.01% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.19% | +0.05 | -- |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 99.07 | +0.25 | +0.25% |
| Cboe Volatility Index® | 25.74 | +0.81 | +3.25% |
| WTI Crude Oil | $87.26 | +$3.83 | +4.59% |
| Bitcoin | $69,340 | -$855.00 | -1.22% |
(Wednesday market open) Though war remains front and center, today's February Consumer Price Index (CPI) provided what might be a welcome distraction and came in right down the middle. Headline monthly CPI of 0.3% and core of 0.2%, excluding food and energy, matched Wall Street's expectations, while annual CPI rose 2.4%, also as expected. Major indexes lost ground early, with a wary eye on climbing crude prices.
Crude tracked higher after three carrier ships were hit by projectiles near the Strait of Hormuz, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) proposed the largest release of strategic oil stockpiles in history. The IEA crude release would be around 300 million to 400 million barrels and likely add about one million barrels a day to oil supplies, Bloomberg reported. That said, around 15 million barrels of oil a day normally flow through the Strait of Hormuz and remain stuck.
Major indexes mostly fell Tuesday but the Nasdaq rose, lifted partly by a resilient chip sector led by memory chip names like Micron (MU) and Western Digital (WDC). The Nasdaq got another boost this morning as Oracle (ORCL) soared on its constructive earnings report late yesterday. Crude's dramatic rally to $120 per barrel early Monday followed by a drop to near $85 Tuesday—coupled with a sharp reversal in the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX)—led to ideas that perhaps a bottom is in for major indexes. Given the elevated uncertainty, it's "probably too early to make that call," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, or SCFR.
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Three things to watch
- CPI deeper dive: Today's CPI doesn't seem likely to change minds about the Federal Reserve's meeting next week, and the 10-year Treasury note yield's rise this morning likely reflects war news, not CPI. "The market is aggressively pricing out Fed rate cuts this year," said Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at SCFR. Chances of a rate cut next week are virtually zero, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Looking ahead, rate watchers might be inclined to dismiss today's data, since it was compiled before the war began. Still, the Fed historically views data in more than one-month increments and might see the oil spike as a temporary impediment to fighting inflation unless the conflict lasts a while. After CPI, futures prices kept odds of a rate cut by mid-year at around 40%, with better chances by the Fed's September meeting. Digging into CPI, apparel prices jumped 1.3% month over month, the largest increase since September 2018. Light core growth partly reflected weakness in used cars and car insurance prices, while February's 0.3% headline increase rose from 0.2% in January. "Numbers came in as expected, but the market's looking past this report and what's next with inflation due to the war in Iran," said Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy at SCFR.
- War scenarios outlined: Looking at likely scenarios for the conflict, Schwab experts see the most likely outcomes as either a relatively quick transition from major military operations to negotiations or a gradual de-escalation. "However, downside risks rise meaningfully in scenarios where global energy supplies face a prolonged disruption with potential spillovers to global growth, inflation, tightening financial conditions, with international markets (especially Europe and Asia) most exposed," wrote Michelle Gibley, director of international equity research and strategy at SCFR, and Chris Ferrarone, head of equity research and strategy at SCFR, in their newest analysis. The upside would be a quick end to military operations followed by energy production and shipments normalizing. In the moderate case, military operations continue for several weeks at reduced intensity before winding down. "History suggests equity markets would rapidly rebound when a ceasefire occurs," Gibley and Ferrarone wrote. "That said, this conflict presents meaningful downside risks, and we don't believe now is the time to aggressively add risk."
- Schwab clients leaned into stocks last month: The Schwab Trading Activity Index™ (STAX) rose to 57.32 in February, up from 49.96 in January. February's score represented the biggest month-over-month percentage gain since late 2020, and the highest score since February 2022. The trading behavior seen among Schwab's retail clients could suggest they believed the AI-driven panic that rattled the markets in February was overblown and used it as an opportunity to pick up some battered stocks. Popular names bought by Schwab clients during the period included technology companies like Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Palantir (PLTR), as well as technology-adjacent companies like Amazon (AMZN) and Netflix (NFLX). Stocks leading the net-sold list among clients tracked by STAX in February included Meta Platforms (META), Apple (AAPL), and Verizon (VZ).
On the move
- Oracle (ORCL) climbed nearly 10% early today after quarterly earnings and revenue topped consensus and fiscal fourth quarter earnings guidance also exceeded Wall Street's thinking. Oracle's results might be another boost for the chip sector, which saw some strength in trading ahead of the open today. In the wake of the report, JPMorgan Chase upgraded Oracle to overweight from neutral, noting that Oracle delivered on its growth acceleration.
- Nike (NKE) climbed more than 2% in early action after getting upgraded by Barclays to overweight from equal weight. The firm cited Nike's operational progress, financial "inflections," and management's "disciplined actions" for the upgrade.
- Campbell's (CPB) took a 4% spill early today as the company missed Wall Street's quarterly revenue expectations. The soup giant also missed analysts' consensus for first quarter earnings per share and lowered its fiscal EPS and organic net sales guidance. One impediment last quarter, which ended February 1, was storm-related shipping delays during the January U.S. cold spell.
- Most S&P 500 sectors ended lower yesterday, with energy falling to the very bottom of the pack as U.S. crude fell more than 8% to finish the day near $87 per barrel. Brent crude, which is more indicative of global prices, fell 8% as well. U.S. natural gas prices fell nearly 3%, too, remaining at what historically are relatively cheap levels.
- Other weak sectors Tuesday included financials, utilities, and health care. Communication services rose for the second day in a row, and discretionary stocks held onto light gains despite expected pressure on consumer sentiment from higher gas prices.
- Crude (/CL) climbed more than 4% this morning despite optimism around the IEA supply release. The U.S. said it's "eliminating" Iran's mine-laying ships, but news of cargo ships being struck by projectiles highlights the continued danger keeping tankers from traversing the Strait.
- U.S. gas prices are up nearly 20% over the last 10 days—faster than they rose after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022—and hit an average of $3.57 per gallon today, according to AAA. "For the American consumer, things are getting very real, very fast," my colleague Gordon said.
More insights from Schwab
Preservation consideration: For investors looking to preserve their capital for retirement, education, or other defined purposes, there's a wide range of conservative investments to consider. Stable value funds are a slightly more under-the-radar part of this landscape also worth a look. Understanding how these funds work—and their benefits and trade-offs—is critical for investors deciding how to manage their retirement or education savings strategies.
" id="body_disclosure--media_disclosure--252376" >Preservation consideration: For investors looking to preserve their capital for retirement, education, or other defined purposes, there's a wide range of conservative investments to consider. Stable value funds are a slightly more under-the-radar part of this landscape also worth a look. Understanding how these funds work—and their benefits and trade-offs—is critical for investors deciding how to manage their retirement or education savings strategies.
Seven investing principles: Watch our new video to find out more about seven principles investors should consider as they try to build a long-term portfolio. Principles include having an investing plan and starting to save and invest today.
Chart of the day
Data source: CME Group. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
Though natural gas (/NG—candlesticks) and crude oil (/CL—purple line) have tracked closely the last five days, the interesting part is that while natural gas remains well below its 200-day moving average (red line), the 200-day moving average for crude wouldn't even fit on this chart because it lies at the $63 level. This partly reflects vast U.S. natural gas resources, which shield U.S. prices somewhat from the pain felt in Europe and Asia, which are huge importers.
The week ahead
Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.
March 12: January factory orders, January housing starts and building permits, and expected earnings from Dollar General (DG), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Adobe (ADBE), and Lennar (LEN).
March 13: January PCE, Q4 GDP second estimate, University of Michigan preliminary March Consumer Sentiment, and January Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
March 16: February industrial production, and expected earnings from Dollar Tree (DLTR).
March 17: Expected earnings from lululemon (LULU) and DocuSign (DOCU).
March 18: FOMC rate decision, February PPI, and expected earnings from General Mills (GIS), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Micron (MU), and Five Below (FIVE).