Stocks Rebound on Peace Hope, Oil Still Above $100
Published as of: March 31, 2026, 9:10 a.m. ET
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| The markets | Last price | Change | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500® Index | 6,343.72 | -25.13 | -0.39% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average® | 45,216.14 | +49.50 | +0.11% |
| Nasdaq Composite® | 20,794.64 | -153.71 | -0.73% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.31% | -0.03 | -- |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 100.17 | -0.33 | -0.33% |
| Cboe Volatility Index® | 28.10 | -2.51 | -8.20% |
| WTI Crude Oil | $102.66 | -$0.19 | -0.18% |
| Bitcoin | $67,085 | +$410 | +0.61% |
(Tuesday market open) Stocks edged up after a news report said President Trump told aides he is willing to end the war in Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. However, recent rallies haven't shown much staying power and White House statements appear to be getting less credence from market participants. Also, crude remained above $100 per barrel, and U.S. gas prices hit $4 a gallon.
The last day of the quarter kicks off a parade of labor reports that crescendo Friday with March nonfarm payrolls. Another gloomy reading after February's 92,000 decline would likely reignite recession concerns, especially considering high oil prices. Before that, consumer confidence data is due at 10 a.m. ET, along with job openings. Nike (NKE) reports after the closing bell and three Federal Reserve speakers are peppered through the day.
Major indexes mostly flopped Monday when an early yield-fueled rally lost steam amid growing risk-off sentiment. Only the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to buck the lower trend, and chip shares plunged. The S&P 500 Index remains in a technical downtrend, though the last day of a quarter sometimes features "window dressing" where fund managers sell losing stocks and buy gainers, providing some positive momentum.
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Three things to watch
- Monthly job openings seen flat: Today's February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) provides the opening salvo of a week packed with labor readings. JOLTS reflects a time before the war began and oil prices jumped, so it might not be that constructive. Still, the fresh reading provides a baseline, and analysts expect headline openings just below 6.9 million, roughly even with January and a bit below last year's average of 7.1 million, which in turn was down from 2024. Another aspect of the report is its "quits" reading, which provides a sense of how confident people were to leave their jobs and look for new ones. Quits were 3.1 million in January and analysts expect little change. Speaking of jobs, Transportation Security Administration (TSA) agents received paychecks, CNN reported, sending wait times down sharply at airports and helping shares of Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Southwest Airlines (LUV) to early gains.
- Credit spreads hit 10-month high amid uncertainty: In a below-the-surface development worth watching, credit spreads—which had held together quite well the first few weeks of the war—have begun widening, especially for high-yield corporate bonds. The average option-adjusted spread of the Bloomberg corporate high-yield index—which tracks the credit premium investors demand for holding corporate debt compared to risk-free Treasuries—jumped 23 basis points on Friday, from 3.08% to 3.31%. Spreads are now at their widest level since last May. This is a good reminder to investors of how riskier investments can be affected by everything going on in the world, including potential damage to some industries due to the war and growing questions about AI investment. The exodus from private credit funds appears to be exacerbating the trend. "Credit spreads sometimes rise before the stock market begins to show signs of cracking, so they can be an important indicator for stock investors to watch," said Collin Martin, director, fixed income strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.
- Nike earnings could track footprints of China, shipping: Nike's quarterly report and call later today could offer a chance for investors to hear about the war' s impact on trade logistics for a company visible in so many markets. The report could also offer insight into trade relations with China after so much tariff-related damage over the last year. A tenuous trading truce seems at risk now after China said last week it's opening investigations into U.S. trade practices that it claims have slowed Chinese goods shipment to the U.S. If China decides on new restrictions aimed at U.S. products, Nike could be one of the companies affected. Its shares approach today's earnings down almost 20% year-to-date and at the lowest level since last year's tariff-related selloff. The last time Nike reported, shares plunged 10% on weakness in the Greater China market, though results topped Wall Street's estimates. That shows where investor focus might be again today. Nike shares edged up 1.4% this morning ahead of the report.
On the move
- Marvell Technology (MRVL) climbed more than 9% early today as Nvidia (NVDA) announced a $2 billion investment in the semiconductor firm, CNBC reported. The partnership builds on Nvidia's technology allowing customers to develop semi-custom AI infrastructure, Nvidia said in a press release.
- Tech stocks had the worst day of any sector yesterday and continue being hurt by mega-cap weakness in shares of names like Broadcom (AVGO), Microsoft (MSFT), and Nvidia (NVDA).
- Meta Platforms (META) added another 1.6% this morning following a 2% climb yesterday after Tech Crunch reported Meta is testing a premium Instagram subscription tier.
- Software stocks found some buyers Monday after being sold off most of the year. ServiceNow (NOW) climbed 5.5%, Salesforce (CRM) rose 3%, and Adobe (ADBE) rose 2.7%. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) rose 5% yesterday and another 2% today, bolstered by news of a large stock purchase by its CEO.
- Mining firms shined today as silver and copper prices climbed. Hecla Mining (HL) and Newmont (NEM) jumped nearly 4% and nearly 3%, respectively.
- McCormick (MKC) climbed nearly 3% early on better-than-expected quarterly results. Also, Reuters reported that Unilever is in "advanced talks" to merge its food business with McCormick's in a potential deal that could create a $60 billion company.
- Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS) soared 138% on news that Biogen (BIIB) has agreed to buy all outstanding shares for $5.6 billion. Biogen said the purchase will enhance its growth portfolio in immunology and rare disease. Shares of Biogen fell 2.4%.
- Constellation Energy (CEG) fell 5% early today after the company issued guidance in line with analysts' estimates for fiscal 2026.
- Micron (MU) fell almost 10% Monday and is down almost one-third from its post-earnings high recorded just eight sessions ago. Earnings were far better than analysts had expected and the company's guidance was strong by most measures, but memory chip firms are under pressure from worries about AI competition and a recent slight drop in product prices.
- Shares of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) edged higher this morning but are down eight days in a row, the longest losing streak in more than seven years, CNBC noted. In a CNBC interview today, chairman and former CEO Warren Buffettt said he will deploy cash if there's another big drop in the market, and that Berkshire is buying U.S. Treasuries.
- Treasury yields pulled back further early today and could be starting to build back some long-term recession risk. Early today, odds of rates ending the year below the current target range of 3.5% to 3.75% were around 20%, compared with zero odds of a cut late last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
More insights from Schwab
Magnificent Seven questions answered: In her latest video, Schwab's Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders answered investor questions about AI and Magnificent Seven stocks. She explains some reasons for recent weak performance of these mega cap names, and noted cyclical rotations affecting the market.
" id="body_disclosure--media_disclosure--252376" >Magnificent Seven questions answered: In her latest video, Schwab's Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders answered investor questions about AI and Magnificent Seven stocks. She explains some reasons for recent weak performance of these mega cap names, and noted cyclical rotations affecting the market.
Reputation at risk: As war raged in the Middle East, consumer staples stocks initially fell more sharply than the broader market. Though staples are often considered a refuge from volatility, they didn't act that way immediately, and our latest sector analysis looked at reasons why.
Options spread primer: Anyone trading options may have noticed that bid/ask spreads tend to widen during volatile markets. Learn more about why and how to manage this in our new look at options trading.
Chart of the day
Data source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
The momentum-driven Relative Strength Index (RSI-lower section of chart) for the S&P 500 Index (SPX—candlesticks) fell below 30 last week, historically oversold territory. RSI can be a helpful indicator when the market is oversold during an uptrend, but its recent weakness with the SPX below its 200-day moving average (blue line) may not be as meaningful. RSI fell below 20 during last year's tariff-related sell-off. The 6,500 level (green line) is a key resistance spot on any turn higher.
The week ahead
Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.
April 1: March ISM Manufacturing PMI®, March ADP employment, February construction spending, and expected earnings from Conagra (CAG).
April 2: February factory orders.
April 3: March nonfarm payrolls, March unemployment, equity markets closed for Good Friday and bond trading ends early.
April 6: No major earnings or data expected.
April 7: No major earnings or data expected.