Here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Tuesday, January 6.
After digesting weekend events in Venezuela, investors return today to face down a busy week of data beginning with job openings and ADP employment early tomorrow. . Today's calendar is light, meaning focus could remain on geopolitics, though over the course of history it's important to remember that geopolitical events rarely have long-term market implications.
"The intervention of the U.S. into Venezuela is a more significant geopolitical event than a market event," Schwab experts said. "While the situation in Venezuela remains in flux and will undoubtedly continue to shift moving forward, global markets have thus far taken the news in stride. From here, much will depend on the degree of the U.S. involvement in Venezuela’s future path, how larger oil producers outside of both countries will respond, and whether the energy market has a tantrum."
One concern is that the U.S. could get bogged down in the country, as it did in Iraq and Afghanistan earlier this century. President Trump criticized the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq and its long-term occupation there, raising hopes that he would seek to avoid a similar scenario in Venezuela. A question some analysts asked Monday is how Venezuela will be controlled from here, with deposed President Nicholas Maduro's government still mainly in place.
Also, choppiness in oil—which initially fell and then rose yesterday—could continue amid concerns about the potential commodities impact, though Venezuela isn't a major exporter. Its production once topped three million barrels a day but is now below one million. That compares with U.S. production of 13 million barrels a day. Venezuela's biggest oil customer is China, but China only gets about 5% of its oil imports from there. China's government criticized the U.S. move.
The oil futures complex could feature prices falling sharply in the "back months" of the futures complex on anticipation of lower prices due to increased supply, Schwab experts said. "Front months," or nearer-term futures contracts, likely won’t be affected as much since it will take time, possibly years, for Venezuelan heavy crude to hit the market.
"We expect limited impact on the near-term decision-making by the Fed given the fluidity of the situation," Schwab's experts said. "However, if it looks like oil prices will trend lower and thus lead to lower gasoline prices, it would help ease the ongoing inflation problem and possibly set the stage for easier monetary policy. All else equal, this would be positive for the stock market."
Turning to this week's data, ADP employment and job openings are due tomorrow before and after the open, respectively, paving the path to Friday's December nonfarm payrolls report. Analysts expect the ADP employment change for December to be around 45,000, up sharply from a negative 32,000 in November but still low historically.
The November Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, is expected to show around 7.6 million jobs waiting to be filled, roughly even with October.
Estimates for Friday's government payrolls data have jobs growth near 55,000, with unemployment remaining at 4.6% in December and weekly wages up 0.3%.
The so-called "whisper number" on Wall Street for jobs growth is a lackluster 45,000. Even a figure that low would outpace the three-month average growth of 22,000.
"The strength or weakness of the labor market should be the key driver of Fed policy going forward," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy, Schwab Center for Financial Research. "Weaker-than-expected labor market data would likely result in more Fed rate cuts than the one to two cuts we’re projecting this year."
None of these numbers, if that's how it turns out, would likely spark much change in ideas about where the Federal Reserve might go this year. It cut rates three times in late 2025 but few analysts expect a follow-up cut later this month. The Fed forecasts one cut this year. At their last meeting, Fed policy makers brought up the idea of waiting to see the impact of recent cuts on economic data, as the effect can take a while to show up.
The futures market priced in 16% odds of a January rate cut as of late Monday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Earnings remain sparse before fourth-quarter reporting season starts with big banks a little over a week from now. Tomorrow afternoon brings quarterly results from Constellation Brands, a supplier of several popular alcoholic beverage brands.
December's ISM Manufacturing PMI released yesterday had a headline of 47.9%, down from 48.2% for November. A headline of 50% or above is needed to show expansion, and December marked a 14-month low. Estimates coming into the report were around 48.3. The important prices category was flat, but still elevated, at 58.5, a sign that inflation remains stubborn. New orders and employment ticked up but remained in contraction along with the headline index.
Those surveyed in the December ISM index mentioned tariffs six times and pointed to them as a driver of weaker revenue and consumer spending.
Another item to monitor in coming days is CES 2026, a global trade tech show focusing on robotics, AI, and wearables. Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, held a press conference at CES late yesterday, and Lisa Su, CEO of Advanced Micro Devices, gave the keynote address. With CES in focus, some of last week's late improvement in chip performance has a chance to continue, and the PHLX Semiconductor Index rose more than 1% Monday despite weakness in Broadcom and Nvidia.
Treasury yields stepped back Monday after the events in Venezuela. The benchmark 10-year yield remains near the upper end of its recent range between roughly 4% and 4.2%. The close yesterday down 2 basis points at 4.17% keeps it close to the 4.2% level that might raise eyebrows.
"The initial dip in yields was likely due to the potential for long-term inflation expectations to fall on the heels of potentially lower oil prices, rather than a 'flight to quality' trade," Schwab's Martin said. "We don’t suggest investors make impulsive investment decisions on headlines like these, however, as the situation is very fluid."
Speaking of fluid, estimates for fourth quarter U.S. gross domestic product growth are falling. The latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is 2.7% on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, down from the previous 3%.
U.S. crude oil futures popped nearly 2% Monday after the Venezuela events. As with Treasuries, the crude stayed within its recent range, not far from one-year lows recorded last month.
Metals futures resumed their volatile trading Monday, another signal that many speculators may be rotating out of crypto and into areas like silver, platinum and palladium. Silver climbed 7.9% yesterday to finish above $76 per ounce, near record highs. Copper climbed 5.1%. Recent strength in the metals and associated stocks might have legs due to the speculative element, with some of the former crypto froth moving into this space.
In stock trading Monday, major indexes got off to a positive start for the week with strength most evident in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the small-cap Russell 2000. This partly reflects strength in energy and financials, both of which are well represented in those indexes. The DJIA closed at a record high. Consumer stocks also had a solid session. Info tech slipped.
From a sector perspective, the year begins with market breadth strongest in financials and materials, reflecting some of the recent rotation out of tech and communication services—the leading two sectors of 2025. Almost 90% of materials stocks trade at or above their 50-day moving averages, though to some extent that reflects recent strength in precious metals that appears fueled by speculative buying.
Among individual movers yesterday, Chevron climbed more than 5%. It may be best positioned among global oil giants to immediately benefit from U.S. access to Venezuelan oil, Bloomberg reported.
Chevron wasn't alone. Halliburton and SLB also climbed double digits. Valero was up 9% after CNBC reported the company could be well equipped to deal with sulfur rich oil from Venezuela.
Large banks performed well Monday, too, ahead of next week's full slate of earnings from the biggest Wall Street firms starting a week from today with JPMorgan Chase.
Comcast rebounded from early losses Monday to rise 1.6%. Shares of its spinoff Versant Media, however fell more than 14%. The media companies finalized a split late Friday, with Versant representing the cable television portfolio.
Defense firms Lockheed Martin and Northrop Gruman rose nearly 3% and more than 4% respectively, Monday following the U.S. military action.
Okta rose 6% after the identity and access management company announced a $1 billion share repurchase program.
Bitcoin rose 4.8% Monday and crypto-related stocks also climbed as risk sentiment appeared to improve. Bitcoin futures posted their best close since mid-November.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) added 594.79 points Monday (+1.23%) to 48,977.18; the S&P 500 index (SPX) climbed 43.58 points (0.64%) to 6,902.05, and the Nasdaq Composite® ($COMP) gained 160.19 points (0.69%) to 23,395.82 and breaking a five-day losing streak.