Here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Tuesday, November 4.
Though five Magnificent Seven firms last week provided ample evidence that AI spending persists, investors get more insight later today when Advanced Micro Devices reports. The company, a competitor of Nvidia's, could give fresh clues on chip demand and possibly insight into U.S. trade with China.
Last week's deal between the U.S. and China disappointed some tech investors because it didn't spell out any major concessions by either side on the chip front. President Trump followed that by saying over the weekend that Nvidia's most advanced chips won't be sold in China.
In today's earnings call, AMD executives likely will be asked for more detail on exports to China and whether that's a market where they expect near-term revenue. AMD's earnings join a host of reports today, including Uber and Shopify—both due before the open. Other key names to watch this week include Arm Holdings, Qualcomm, Arista Networks and Super Micro Computer. If last week was the week of the mega caps, this week highlights many other tech companies that either serve the mega caps or compete with them. Nvidia reports November 19.
Major indexes remain near record highs but face growing concerns about concentration at the top of the market. The biggest 10 S&P 500 stocks now account for about 40% of the index in terms of market capitalization, and semiconductor shares rose 13% in October. The rest of the market languished last month, leading to worries that the long rally relies even more on strength from the mega cap and chip contingent.
Breadth remains a sore spot. Less than 38% of S&P 500 stocks traded above their 50-day moving average as of late Monday, while just 53% traded above their 200-day moving average. This might be another indication that the strong bullish uptrend could be losing steam.
Tomorrow morning features key jobs data as investors get October ADP employment data, an industry report that's often overlooked when official government data are available. ADP's September data showed private employers shrinking payrolls by 32,000, but economists expect a gain of 26,000 jobs in October, according to Briefing.com. Even that would be light by historic standards. Keep in mind that ADP's numbers don't often correlate with the actual government report, but for now it's all investors are likely to have.
The government shutdown continued as of this recording, approaching the longest in history. With some benefits running out and health care premiums likely to rise, Washington could come under pressure this week to reach a resolution. If that happens, it's unclear how much data investors would receive. The government was closed last month during the time it normally collects October jobs data, meaning the report originally scheduled for this Friday won't necessarily happen even on a delayed basis. If the shutdown carries into next week, it could threaten the gathering of November jobs data as well.
Palantir reported late Monday, and its earnings and revenue beat Wall Street's average estimates. Fourth-quarter revenue guidance also topped consensus. Shares initially climbed 3% in post-market action.
About 100 S&P 500 companies report this week. To date, 64% of S&P 500 companies have reported, with 83% beating estimates on the bottom line and 79% on the top line, FactSet said. Blended earnings growth is 10.7% including companies reporting already and estimates for those to come. That's up from the pre-earnings season average estimate of 8%.
In data yesterday, the October ISM Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, came in at 48.7, below the Briefing.com consensus of 49.4 and down from 49.1 in September. A reading of 50 is needed to signal expansion rather than contraction. In one positive note, the prices paid index fell to 58 from nearly 62 the prior month, and some shorter-term Treasury yields slipped. However, the 10-year yield hovered right near 4.10% most of Monday, up more than 10 basis points from recent near-term lows on Fed rate cut hesitance.
Futures trading builds in a 67% chance of a 25-basis point cut in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. That's down from 90% odds before last week's Fed meeting raised doubts and more Fed officials spoke Friday and Monday sounding unsure if another cut is needed. While futures trading shows a high likelihood of rates being lower by early next year than they are now, chances of a drop below 3.5% from the current range of 3.75 to 4% is only about 21%.
After suffering its worst open to a year in decades, the U.S. dollar has been on a tear the last few days and is near three-month highs just under 100 for the dollar index. Part of this reflects the Fed's more hawkish language, because the dollar would be more likely to stay firm if the Fed keeps monetary supply relatively tight. A weak yen has also helped the greenback.
Major indexes wavered Monday, unable to obtain much traction for the third straight session. Once again, early gains had trouble sustaining themselves, suggesting buying interest might be waning above current levels with most of the near-term news catalysts now in the rear-view mirror. At one point Monday, declining shares led advancing ones in the S&P 500 by a two-to-one margin, though the index was slightly higher thanks to mega-cap gains.
By day's end, just four S&P 500 sectors were above water, led by consumer discretionary and info tech. Those were mainly functions of Amazon for the consumer sector and Nvidia for tech. Health care also got a lift as a giant stock in that category, Eli Lilly, kept ploughing higher following last week's solid earnings report.
Few sectors got taken down too much, though staples suffered a blow as shares of Kimberly-Clark sold off by more than 14% Monday on news the company was buying Kenvue, maker of Tylenol. Investors appeared unhappy with the price Kimberly-Clark paid for Kenvue and worried that regulatory review might represent a challenge, Barron's reported.
Nasdaq, meanwhile, gained again Monday amid strength in semiconductors. Nvidia, Micron, Taiwan Semiconductor, and AMD were among the gainers. Though there've been some pullbacks in the tech sector here and there, dip buying has generally appeared each time. That doesn't guarantee a repeat, naturally.
On a more positive note, Amazon climbed another 4% Monday after announcing a $38 billion deal for Amazon Web Services to provide infrastructure for OpenAI's AI workloads. That was in addition to its nearly double-digit increase Friday following strong earnings. Shares of Amazon are now at all-time highs.
Beyond Meat plunged 16% after the company delayed its third quarter results. It now reports November 11, CNBC said.
Iren soared 11% after the Australian company agreed to a $9.7 billion deal to sell AI cloud capacity to Microsoft, Barron's reported.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) dropped 226.19 points Monday (-0.48%) to 47,336.68; the S&P 500 index (SPX) climbed 11.77 points (+0.17%) to 6,851.97, and the Nasdaq Composite® ($COMP) added 109.77 points (+0.46%) to 23,834.72.