Here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Wednesday, July 8.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting later today could set the stage for Treasury yields, now near the top of their recent range. At the same time, investors may have sore necks from watching the recent back-and-forth chip market moves that seem well timed for the tennis matches at Wimbledon.
In terms of the minutes, due at 2 p.m. ET, it may be a new ballgame with Chairman Kevin Warsh now in charge.
"What's going to be interesting here is whether the length of the minutes is cut down at all, because this was the first meeting under Kevin Warsh," said Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). "And then beyond that, what the debate and the discussion looked like around inflation and how the Fed is thinking about getting back to price stability in the future."
More important for yields and the broader market might be next week's semi-annual congressional testimony by Warsh. He's talked about the Fed communicating less, but it's uncertain how the chairman will make that happen when he faces elected officials demanding his point of view on live television next Tuesday.
As of late yesterday, futures trading put chances of a rate hike at this month's Fed meeting relatively low near 27%. The odds strengthen by September to around 62%. Still, Schwab's experts don't see a rate hike as very likely in coming months, noting that falling energy prices and last month's relatively light jobs growth may give the Fed room to keep rates paused. June inflation data next week is the next major input.
Aside from the minutes, which don't often have much impact on trading, the market appears caught in a pre-earnings season tug of war between the volatile semiconductor sector and just about everything else.
The non-tech team won yesterday's battle despite more signs of heavy AI demand from Samsung, which fell sharply in South Korean trading Tuesday despite solid earnings. U.S. chip stocks picked up on Samsung's weakness, which seemed predicated on ideas that demand momentum can't keep up, though investors have heard that for months by now and hyperscaler spending hasn't shown signs of stalling.
"These regime shifts that cause these rapid-fire rotations" make for a difficult trading environment, and could continue, said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at SCFR, in an interview with CNBC Tuesday. It reinforces the benefits of diversification, with small-caps outperforming the S&P 500 Index for two years now.
Earnings season could help determine if tech and AI can redevelop their leadership, Sonders added.
Samsung's swings and the impact on the broader tech sector are something to keep in mind ahead of results from chip infrastructure maker ASML and giant chip producer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing next week.
Judging from Samsung's descent despite a 19-fold annual rise in operating profit, investors might not be patient with companies that can't meet expectations either for results or guidance. Even those that do could be punished, as Broadcom investors learned a few weeks ago when the company failed to raise annual revenue guidance, which was already quite firm. Shares tanked on that news in early June and haven't recovered yet. This could reflect companies not meeting "whisper numbers" from the buy side.
SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday but the impact wasn't galactic as shares plunged 6% and are now down 29% from their peak.
Tomorrow morning brings PepsiCo, which volatility-weary investors might welcome. The approach of earnings can sometimes serve as ballast for a market uncertain of direction. The last time PepsiCo reported, it beat earnings and revenue expectations and saw snack sales in North America revive thanks in part to price cuts, CNBC reported at the time. It also reiterated its full-year forecast but cited volatility and uncertainty related to the Iran situation. Pepsi shares rose Tuesday ahead of its report, and analysts expect adjusted earnings growth of 4.1% from a year ago to $2.21 per share.
Delta follows on Friday morning in an airline market that's appeared to weather high oil prices relatively well in terms of demand. Stocks in the sector soared over the last few weeks as oil prices descended.
This week's reports from consumer names follow news earlier this week that Walmart lowered prices for summer picnic and grill items from beef to potato chips. Investors might be interested to learn if other consumer firms are making similar moves, which could weigh on margins but also could get customers in the door.
Falling gas prices mean inflation could retreat from recent peaks, according to New York Fed President John Williams, who said that in an interview Tuesday with Fox News. He also sees labor market stability, and stable gross domestic product (GDP) growth near 2%.
Investors can't take GDP for granted, as the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow indicator for the second quarter fell from above 4% earlier this year to just above 1.4% in the updated reading Tuesday. This metric is based on incoming data and could change, but its recent dip suggests data has weakened lately. Investors get their first look at the government's official second quarter GDP estimate later this month.
Oil is another topic that comes up on the list of variables, rising toward $72 per barrel Tuesday after reports of more Iranian attacks on shipping in the Gulf of Hormuz. The broader market remains vulnerable to any surge in hostilities that sends crude back upward. More geopolitical pressure appeared to come from President Trump's renewed threats to remove troops from Europe, as reported by CNBC.
Fresh data emerges tomorrow morning with a reading on June existing home sales. Consensus is 4.2 million on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, according to Briefing.com, hardly budging from May's 4.17 million. Weekly jobless claims are also due tomorrow morning.
Major indexes fell across the board Tuesday in a session marked by rising Treasury yields and oil prices. Volume through midday was quite a bit below average, and some of the tech pressure might reflect investors cashing in some stock holdings to prepare for the U.S. listing on Friday of South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix. That company launched a U.S. share sale early this week to raise $28 billion, Reuters reported. The final listing price is due Thursday.
Treasury yields spiked on the oil rally despite solid demand for a $58 billion 3-year Treasury note auction. Ten-year notes go on the block later today. The 10-year yield climbed five basis points to top 4.53% by the end of Wall Street's session Tuesday, the highest reading since June 11 and up 17 basis points from the June 29 low. That's a relatively quick recovery for yields.
Another source of pressure on Treasuries might be rising U.S. imports. The trade deficit expanded to $77.6 billion in May, up from a revised $54.6 billion in April, the Commerce Department said.
Though indexes pulled back, six of 11 S&P 500 sectors ended higher, led by energy but also by defensive sectors including real estate, health care, utilities and staples. Industrials, which find themselves wrapped together with the overall AI trade, lost ground, as did info tech. Technically, it was constructive that the S&P 500 Index stayed above 7,500 by the end of the day, Briefing.com pointed out.
The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, which weighs all components equally rather than by market capitalization, fell slightly.
Among individual movers Tuesday, Samsung Electronics fell 7% in overseas trading despite a 19-fold jump in second quarter operating profit. The earnings report didn't appear to contain any unpleasant surprises, but analysts suggested profit taking emerged in the market amid ideas the solid growth might not be sustainable.
U.S. chip stocks followed Samsung lower. Micron lost almost 7% and Sandisk plunged 9%. Intel fell 10%. Overall, recent chip action shows signs of investor fatigue. The PHLX Semiconductor Index, or SOX, is down almost 17% from its mid-June peak, and recent bounces quickly ran into selling. The SOX is below its 50-day moving average for the first time since early April, and its Relative Strength Index, or RSI is below 44. Typically, it takes a 50 RSI or more to signify upward momentum.
Amazon rose slightly as it sought to raise at least $25 billion through a dollar bond sale. This deal put pressure on the broader tech space, Blomberg reported, amid growing fatigue over what the news organization called a "barrage" of AI financings. Investors sold bonds issued by other hyperscalers to free up capital for Amazon's new issue, and weakness caused by that caused bond yields to widen.
Crinetics Pharmaceuticals surged 98% as Vertex Pharmaceuticals announced it had agreed to buy the biotech firm for $10 billion.
Staples stocks got a lift from Walmart's announcement it's lowering prices for some items.
Shares of CBOE Global Markets rose 6% on strong June volume figures.
Energy firms ConocoPhillips, Chevron, and ExxonMobil were among the S&P 500's leading shares Tuesday as oil prices rose due to attacks on Gulf shipping and the U.S. revoking a waiver that allowed Iran to sell oil and petrochemicals. Peace talks are paused for the funeral of Iran's former supreme leader, CBS News reported.
Rivian fell 17% after the EV maker announced it's selling 75 million shares of stock.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) sagged 130.76 points (-0.25%) Tuesday to 52,925.15; the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) gave back 33.58 points (-0.45%) to 7,503.85, and the Nasdaq Composite® ($COMP) dipped 302.47 points (-1.16%) to 25,818.69.