Here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Wednesday, October 21:
The day begins with investors digesting yesterday's late results from SpaceX and Netflix and anticipating this afternoon's duo of Tesla and Meta Platforms. As investors survey mega-cap earnings this week and next, major considerations include margins, demand, AI monetization, spending, and guidance.
Tech entered the week reeling as investors questioned the persistence of AI-related spending and debt costs rose.
Meta recently rolled out new AI offerings, including its Muse agent, receiving a positive reaction on Wall Street. One question is how it plans to monetize these products and how it can address security-related questions. Competition is another question, especially because Meta doesn't have a cloud platform to fall back on like some of its mega-cap rivals. Consensus is for earnings per share of $5.89 and revenue of $63.4 billion.
With Tesla, Robotaxi progress gets a look. This can be measured in metrics like fleet size, unsupervised miles, and safety. Capital spending is also a concern, and investors might want more insight on EV demand trends after Tesla reported a sequential increase in deliveries to top consensus estimates in the third quarter. Consensus is for earnings per share of $0.43 and revenue of $27.9 billion.
Late yesterday, SpaceX reported earnings and revenue that exceeded expectations, driven by a 22% sequential increase in the connectivity business. Revenue rose 161.4% from a year earlier to $14.57 billion, easily topping FactSet's consensus of $12.87 billion. Shares bounced 2% in post-market trading, initially.
Netflix shares initially plunged 3% in post-market trading. Earnings and revenue topped analysts' expectations, but its 12% annual revenue rise was considered relatively weak compared to historic levels. On the plus side, operating margin and free cash flow grew from a year earlier. The company said engagement—an important metric—remained "healthy," the same word it used in July when it last reported.
Later today, investors might want to check results from Lam Research and Texas Instruments. While these companies don't attract the same focus as so-called "mega-caps," they can tell the story of underlying demand for chips and AI components.
While earnings enjoy most of the current spotlight, geopolitics won't go away. Crude initially topped $100 for U.S. futures Tuesday, up about 9% from its October low, as Wall Street mulled reports of fresh attacks on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure and civilian targets. Crude ended lower on media reports of U.S. talks with Iran, though no progress appeared evident.
Oil supplies come into view later today when the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announces weekly crude inventories. They fell a dramatic 8.6 million barrels a week ago.
There are no major Treasury auctions this week to give any hints at demand in fixed income. Meetings of the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank next week, along with next Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision, are near-term catalysts.
"Last week’s higher-than-expected U.S. inflation reports should have pushed yields higher but concerns about the AI buildout weighing on growth caused a flight-to-safety move and helped contribute to the decline in yields," said Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). "We believe inflation will eventually cool toward the Fed’s 2% target, but the longer it remains elevated, the more likely yields are to remain elevated as well."
Market participants see chances of an October Fed rate hike at just 17%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. A December hike is seen as far more likely followed by more hikes next year.
September housing starts and building permits, both out Tuesday, looked soft as high prices, lofty mortgage rates, and inflation took a toll. Housing starts fell 5% month-over-month, missing analysts' consensus, according to Briefing.com. Permits fell slightly from August.
Pending home sales for September fell 7%, much worse than analysts had expected. The weak housing data likely took a toll on longer-term yields, but short-term yields gained as oil stayed near recent highs.
Major indexes finished mixed Wednesday without much traction in either direction, though tech backed off from Monday's light gains. Small caps surprisingly took the lead, possibly helped by the slight dip in long-term Treasury yields but also by a strong set of earnings reports earlier in the day by many smaller firms. Positive surprises abounded. Small caps might also be enjoying some benefit from the rotation out of tech.
Chip stocks initially saw pressure Tuesday after a dip in the South Korean market to its lowest close since early April.
Increasingly, the tech-packed South Korean market helps set U.S. tech direction, and a weak performance Tuesday in South Korea for the IPO of AI computing supplier Elice raised more questions about interest in AI-related investments--not just in South Korea but globally.
Nine of 11 S&P 500 sectors Tuesday as breadth generally improved, but many buyers stuck to defensive areas including health care, real estate, and utilities. Financials had a nice rebound, however, and discretionary enjoyed strength a second straight session. Housing and airlines may have gotten help from lower yields, and from anticipation ahead of results from United Airlines later Tuesday.
Info tech fell, but the PHLX Semiconductor Index rose a touch to put two green sessions together after an eight-day losing streak.
The SPX is near a technically important near-term test area between 7,690 and 7,700. Holding that range might stabilize the market, but a decisive break could open the door to more downside.
Individual movers Tuesday included CoreWeave--the closely watched cloud stock that's been so volatile lately--rising 1.6%. CoreWeave and Oracle could continue to set the tone for tech because both are seen as emblematic of firms taking on heavy debt for AI-related investments. Oracle, which holds an AI conference next week, rose 1%.
Other tech-related shares didn't fare as well Tuesday, with memory chip maker SK Hynix down again on weakness in the South Korean market and Arm Holdings and Lumentum remaining weak. ASML, which reported strong results and guidance last week, also fell.
Northrup Grumman rose 4% on strong earnings results.
Eli Lilly jumped 3.7% and made new all-time highs. Health care was the leading sector performer Tuesday as AI rotation benefitted health company stocks. There was no major news driving Lilly's gains.Apple fell 1% after getting downgraded by Loop Capital to hold from buy on concerns about slow iPhone shipments. UBS said annual iPhone revenue growth could ease in the September quarter to 14% from 22% to 23% in recent quarters.
Salesforce dropped just slightly after announcing plans to acquire Braze for about $47.50 per share, or approximately $5.66 billion in enterprise value. Braze rose more than 50%.
GE Aerospace dropped 3.7% despite a solid earnings report that included beating analysts' estimates for both revenue and earnings per share. The company also raised guidance.
3M jumped almost 6% following earnings that topped Wall Street's expectations and in-line revenue. The company also raised its fiscal 2026 EPS estimate above consensus.
General Motors plunged almost 7% despite beating analysts' earnings expectations and raising free cash flow guidance. It approved a multi-year $20 billion stock buyback plan. However, GM also lowered the top range of its earnings guidance for the full year as costs rise.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) zoomed up 529.85 points (+1.02%) Tuesday to 52,495.88; the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) gained 21.84 points (+0.28%) to 7,712.57, and the Nasdaq Composite® ($COMP) slipped 6.07 points (-0.02%) to 26,424.82.