On-screen text:
Week Ahead
• Consumer expectations
• June FOMC minutes
• Interest rate guidance
Narrator:
This week is not about inflation data. It's actually about inflation discussion.
So, we're actually not getting any inflation data points this week. But we are getting important reports and sentiment data when it comes to how consumers are feeling about inflation, but also what the Fed is thinking about moving forward when it comes to policy.
So the first thing we're watching for is from the consumer standpoint. The New York Fed releases an Inflation Expectations Survey every single month. And they've been doing this for more than a decade. And it asks consumers what they think about in terms of the path of inflation a year out or even a few years out, in addition to other economic data. When it comes to how difficult it is to find a job or their outlook for interest rates or even the stock market.
What's interesting is that inflation expectations have actually come down just a little bit recently. But if you look at them relative to the past few years, they are still elevated. So I think the influence of gas prices coming down is going to be important to see whether it is strong enough to offset what has been a significant run-up in expectations over the past couple of years.
From the Fed's perspective, we are going to get the meeting minutes from the June meeting when the Federal Open Market Committee met and decided to hold rates steady. I think what's going to be interesting here is whether the length of the minutes is cut down at all, because this was the first meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh. And then beyond that, what the debate and the discussion looked like around inflation and how the Fed is thinking about getting back to price stability in the future.
So it's going to be a really interesting juxtaposition in terms of whether the consumer is starting to feel a lot more confidence around gasoline prices coming down, but also how the Fed is thinking about stickier inflation, especially in the services part of the economy.
On-screen text: [Schwab logo] Own your tomorrow®