Examination of recent geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on investors provides perspective on these developments, even if the risk is measured at "average."
Though the Fed is close to the end of its rate-hiking cycle, additional increases in the fed funds rate are still likely, albeit less aggressive in magnitude.
Volatility waves and changing-news tides elicit short-term market moves; economic currents tend to affect longer-term market shifts which may now favor international stocks.
There was something for everyone—even those supportive of an economic soft landing—in December’s jobs report, but recessionary signals have not subsided.
Markets may continue to see volatility in 2023 as they navigate between global economic growth and inflation fears with central banks' decreasing rate hikes and China's reopening.
Chinese officials may be preparing to bring an end to China's zero-COVID policy but reopening the world's second-largest economy could bring inflationary challenges.
A better-than-expected October consumer price index report provided some relief and support for equities, but investors should be wary of low-quality leadership and, to some extent, crypto stress.
Earnings weakness is starting to materialize across a broader swath of industries, with hits coming from a strong dollar, weaker demand, and aggressive monetary policy.
Markets can have more sway over policymakers than vice versa, as demonstrated in the U.K. recently. Here are three ideas for what markets may compel other policymakers to do next.
Much attention has been paid to the elevated risk (and announcement) of a recession, but investors should instead focus on signals coming from leading economic indicators.
On the surface, a new 1% stock buyback tax and 15% corporate minimum tax on top-earning companies may look harmful to bottom lines, but we think the reality is more nuanced.
The earnings outlook is dimming as the economy slows, which could result in cuts to earnings forecasts and downside for stocks. U.K. earnings have been a surprising outperformer.
While a spike in global market volatility has prompted some investors to think a Fed response is imminent, we caution against thinking that intervention is a bullish development.
The persistence of global inflation could determine which of the three paths central banks may follow and which market qualities investors might consider for their portfolios.
The bear market has been driven by multiple compression, making valuations look relatively compelling. Yet, expected weakness in earnings may limit the upside potential for stocks.
In its quest to reduce inflation, the Federal Reserve appears set to continue to hike interest rates and reduce the size of its balance sheet. Here's a look at what this may mean for the bond market.
Central Banks relying on inflation measures based on rentals, rather than home prices, may persist in raising rates, applying more economic brakes despite easing home sales.
The August jobs report delivered something for both economic bulls and bears, but what matters more in the near term is the Fed's focus on seeing a continued easing in labor demand.
Topics like inflation, currency, and government policies dominate questions about the world's second-largest economy. Here we provide answers for investors about China.
The signals from central banks that rate hikes, which began last year, may be coming to an end could be welcome news for investors looking ahead to the next 12 months.
July’s hot jobs report will likely keep the Fed in a hawkish position, but key to watch moving forward is a continued softening in leading labor and inflation indicators
A trifecta of factors support the dollar, including the relatively strong performance of the U.S. economy, tightening monetary by the Federal Reserve, and safe-haven buying. These are likely to remain intact into 2023.
Although the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed above stocks' dividend yields earlier this year, dividend payers may continue to reward should the economy continue to slow.
Second-quarter earnings growth will mark an expected deceleration in profits, but focus will likely continue to shift to the pace at which outlooks are downgraded.
The June jobs report was cheered by economic bulls given its strength in level terms, but rates of change among leading indicators don't favor a soft-landing outcome for the economy.
Inventory gluts has been bad news for the stocks of companies experiencing them, but could also be indicating an inflation peak, which tends to be an ingredient for market bottoms.
A spike in prices and interest rates has dealt a significant blow to housing affordability, elevating the potential for the housing market's weakness to dampen economic growth.
Investors often notice the overall direction of markets; missed changes in asset classes under the surface could see a shark attack take a big bite out of unprepared portfolios.
Economic uncertainty may have peaked in the first half of 2022, but it remains high. Stocks are likely to continue to feel the weight of Federal Reserve policy tightening, shrinking market liquidity and slower economic growth.
Rising inflation, rate hikes, supply-chain problems and the Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to growing recession fears. While recessions are impossible to predict, we think the risk of one—sooner rather than later—has picked up.
Economic uncertainty may have peaked in the first half of 2022 but could still contribute to volatility and affect market performance for the remainder of the year.
Sharp, countertrend rallies may continue this year, but aggressive Fed policy, the turning of the liquidity tide, and slower economic growth will likely keep pressure on stocks.
Stocks, bonds, and cash are all in a bear market or teetering on the edge of one—a very rare event. Over the past 72 years, there have only been two prior periods with a triple bear.
Bearish sentiment is becoming a contrarian support; but for now, aggressive Fed action, tightening financial conditions, and the liquidity drain may keep downward pressure on stocks.
Major central banks are hiking interest rates rapidly and shrinking their balance sheets in an effort to "normalize" policy. The question hanging over the market is, "What is a normal policy rate?"
Another burst of market volatility has confirmed that the peak in negative economic consequences—courtesy of tighter policy and slowing growth—is likely still ahead of us.
Consider hedging the possible risk of higher interest rates with the addition of short duration stocks, a potential way to manage risk while remaining invested in the markets.
With inflation running at a 40-year high, and the Fed having embarked on a rate hike cycle, the burning debate is whether the slowdown ends in a soft landing or a recession.
Politics may have little impact on economic globalization or corporate profits—which gives little reason for investors to deglobalize their portfolios despite the headlines.
Stocks have enjoyed a relief rally of late, but conviction is lacking as the rebound has disproportionately favored low-quality segments of the market.
The geopolitical impact on earnings, the most important driver of stock prices, has remained modest so far; global companies appear to be on a path for earnings growth in 2022.
Prices have fallen sharply, creating an opportunity for income-oriented investors who can ride out the volatility. Investors should understand the risks, however.
Even if a recession is not imminent, the playbook deserves a dusting off as rising inflation, tighter monetary policy, and the war in Ukraine all crimp economic growth prospects.
We believe the odds of a recession in Europe are above average, but still below 50%. We will be watching developments and data closely to see how the economic outlook evolves.
Global leaders backed a new round of sanctions on Russia, but it is unclear at this time if these additional measures will be successful at avoiding an energy shock.
The human toll is immense, but financial market reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been muted so far. Here's what we expect to see in coming days and weeks.
