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Markets & Economy

by
Liz Ann Sonders
September 10, 2018
The August payroll report was generally strong, with a kick into higher gear for wages. Will “Main Street” feel better than “Wall Street” this year?
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
September 04, 2018
The U.S. bond market has been a good indicator of peaks in international stock markets. This is now important since the yield curve in the U.S. has flattened more than in Europe.
by
Brad Sorensen
August 30, 2018
Schwab's view on the consumer staples sector, which includes consumer items that tend to be viewed as household necessities.
by
Kathy A. Jones
August 23, 2018
The steep drop in emerging market bonds and currencies has improved valuations, but that doesn’t mean investors are being fairly compensated for the risk.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
August 20, 2018
There are some reasons to think that the probability of a repeat of a past crisis has eased. The changes we have seen should help reduce the vulnerability of the global system to shocks like those of the past. Of course, risk has not been entirely eliminated from the system.
by
Kathy A. Jones
August 14, 2018
Ten-year Treasury bond yields marched higher during the past two years, while bond prices fell. However, it appears that longer-term yields may be peaking. Is the bond bear market over, or only paused?
by
Liz Ann Sonders
August 13, 2018
The absolute levels of most economic data points remain healthy, but signs abound of second derivative inflection points in growth, inflation and volatility.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
August 06, 2018
What Does GDP Mean For The Stock Market?
by
Liz Ann Sonders
August 01, 2018
The Fed acted as expected by not acting on interest rates; and although there was no associated press conference, the statement had a few nuggets of note.
by
Liz Ann Sonders
July 30, 2018
The economy and earnings grabbed headlines last week; with a sharp acceleration in real GDP growth, and concerns about earnings thanks to Facebook’s face plant.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
July 23, 2018
Many of our top risks for 2018 have come to pass. Our updated top five global risks for investors in 2018 are: geopolitics, chasing returns, return of inflation, dollar strength, and fading momentum.
by
Kathy A. Jones
July 12, 2018
The late stage of the business cycle presents both opportunities and risks for fixed income investors. Here’s what to look for in the second half of 2018.
by
July 11, 2018
What changes will the rest of 2018 bring to the markets? Get perspectives from the Schwab Center for Financial ResearchTM to help inform your client conversations.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
July 09, 2018
Trade-war anxieties have been reflected in markets and surveys of both consumers and businesses, but thus far have not appeared in actual “hard” economic data.
by
Liz Ann Sonders, Jeffrey Kleintop, Brad Sorensen
July 06, 2018
Investors continue to be bombarded with an ever-increasing flow of information. The ratio of noise to importance is skewed toward the former but differentiating between the two can be important.
by
Liz Ann Sonders
July 02, 2018
We continue with our theme of “it’s getting late” when looking ahead to the second half; with important and rising risks to weigh against the rewards.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
June 25, 2018
Global economic and earnings growth momentum is slowing, but still growing. How the ongoing trade conflicts develop pose a risk to markets the second half of the year.
by
Liz Ann Sonders
June 18, 2018
Total credit market debt is stratospheric, in spite of household/financial sector deleveraging; and with fiscal policy blowing out the deficit, it’s going to get worse.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
June 11, 2018
Emerging market stocks appear to have gone from front-runner to dark horse in the minds of investors. Fear of a return to an environment that hobbled emerging markets in the past has gripped the market.
by
Liz Ann Sonders
June 04, 2018
The May employment report was gangbusters, with strength across most components, including payrolls, the unemployment rate and wage growth. Can it continue?
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
May 29, 2018

It is now graduation time for many high school students. But not all of the new graduates are headed to college right away. Gap years are growing more popular with students taking a year off to mature before taking on the next step in their education.

by
Brad Sorensen
May 10, 2018
The consumer is looking good heading into the holiday shopping season, and the dire predictions for brick-and-mortar stores may have been premature.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
April 11, 2018
The current candidates for the next bubble do not seem to fit the classic bubble profile and may cause less potential damage if they were to burst, but that doesn't mean they don't carry risks for investors.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
March 05, 2018

Global stocks gave up roughly half of their recovery from the February correction last week as President Trump previewed his plan to impose a 25% tariff on steel imports and 10% on aluminum. Not every new tariff constitutes a trade war—metals have often been a target of U.S. tariffs with steel tariffs imposed by each of Trump’s recent predecessors in the White House. Although small in economic impact, these tariffs are symbolically important.

by
Kathy A. Jones
February 28, 2018
Even during periods of rising interest rates, fixed income assets can—and often have—produced positive total returns.
by
Liz Ann Sonders
February 26, 2018

Every month in the immediate aftermath of the release of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) I put together a small deck together for Schwab’s Operating Committee highlighting the overall data and some of the key takeaways. The latest report—out last week—was notable in its strength; and in stark contrast to the worries expressed by some clients lately about the risk of a recession in the near term.

by
Brad Sorensen
February 22, 2018
Previous volatility spikes and flatter yield curves have tended to have had a relatively predictable effect on sectors, historically speaking. Here’s what investors should know.
by
Brad Sorensen
February 22, 2018
Schwab's view on the consumer discretionary sector, which covers companies that sell non-essential goods and services.
by
Brad Sorensen
February 22, 2018
Schwab's view on the consumer staples sector, which includes consumer items that tend to be viewed as household necessities.
by
Brad Sorensen
February 22, 2018
Schwab's view on the energy sector, which encompasses companies that help produce and distribute energy.
by
Brad Sorensen
February 22, 2018
Schwab's view on the financial sector, which encompasses the financial services industry and is often referred to by the acronym FIRE, for finance, insurance and real estate.
by
Brad Sorensen
February 22, 2018
Schwab's view on the health care sector covers health care equipment and services as well as  pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies.
by
Brad Sorensen
February 22, 2018
Schwab's view on the industrial sector, which includes providers of capital goods, commercial services, transportation services and infrastructure.
by
Brad Sorensen
February 22, 2018
Schwab's view on the information technology sector, which covers most makers and providers of computer, data, and electronic equipment and services.
by
Brad Sorensen
February 22, 2018
Schwab's view on the materials sector, which describes an array of commodity-related manufacturing industries.
by
Brad Sorensen
February 22, 2018
Schwab's view on the real estate sector, which covers companies involved in real estate and includes equity REITs.
by
Brad Sorensen
February 22, 2018
Schwab's view on the telecommunications sector, including operators of telecom networks and providers of communications and data transmission services.
by
Brad Sorensen
February 22, 2018
Schwab's view on the utilities sector, which covers a variety of industries that generate and deliver power and water.
by
Liz Ann Sonders
November 30, 2015
Looking again at some popular valuation metrics, it’s a mixed bag … with mixed messages, suggesting as always that valuation is in the eye of the beholder.