Markets & Economy

Markets & Economy

  • Go With the Flow

    January 17, 2023
    Volatility waves and changing-news tides elicit short-term market moves; economic currents tend to affect longer-term market shifts which may now favor international stocks.
  • Schwab Market Perspective: Slowdown or Recession?

    January 13, 2023
    Although it's possible the Federal Reserve will guide the economy to a "soft landing," evidence has been pointing toward recession.
  • Hurts So Good: Jobs Picture Stays Mixed

    January 9, 2023
    There was something for everyone—even those supportive of an economic soft landing—in December’s jobs report, but recessionary signals have not subsided.
  • Will Rising Federal Debt Slow Economic Growth?

    December 21, 2022
    Over the past 70 years, rising government debt generally has been accompanied by weaker economic activity. But it’s not a simple relationship.
  • Stock Market Volatility: Fed Concerns to the Fore

    December 15, 2022
    What our experts think about the recent stock market drop.
  • Listen to the (More Hawkish Fed) Music

    December 14, 2022
    The Fed hiked interest rates by 50 basis points in December, and while progress has been made on inflation, Fed Chair Powell noted it is too early to declare victory.
  • 2023 Market Outlook: Cross Currents

    December 12, 2022
    We expect economic growth and market performance to improve in 2023 compared with 2022. But things may get worse before they get better.
  • Global Outlook: Recovery and Risk

    December 5, 2022
    Markets may continue to see volatility in 2023 as they navigate between global economic growth and inflation fears with central banks' decreasing rate hikes and China's reopening.
  • Risk for 2023: China Reopening

    November 21, 2022
    Chinese officials may be preparing to bring an end to China's zero-COVID policy but reopening the world's second-largest economy could bring inflationary challenges.
  • Swing, Swing: Wild Week

    November 14, 2022
    A better-than-expected October consumer price index report provided some relief and support for equities, but investors should be wary of low-quality leadership and, to some extent, crypto stress.
  • Midterm Elections Signal More Washington Gridlock

    November 9, 2022
    While results won't be finalized for some time, it is clear that we will have two more years of an extremely narrowly divided Congress.
  • Disappearing Act: Earnings

    October 31, 2022
    Earnings weakness is starting to materialize across a broader swath of industries, with hits coming from a strong dollar, weaker demand, and aggressive monetary policy.
  • Revenge of the Markets

    October 24, 2022
    Markets can have more sway over policymakers than vice versa, as demonstrated in the U.K. recently. Here are three ideas for what markets may compel other policymakers to do next.
  • Different Strings … Similar Story

    October 17, 2022
    Much attention has been paid to the elevated risk (and announcement) of a recession, but investors should instead focus on signals coming from leading economic indicators.
  • Inflation Reduction Act: New Taxes, Weaker Market?

    October 10, 2022
    On the surface, a new 1% stock buyback tax and 15% corporate minimum tax on top-earning companies may look harmful to bottom lines, but we think the reality is more nuanced.
  • The End of Earnings Growth?

    October 10, 2022
    The earnings outlook is dimming as the economy slows, which could result in cuts to earnings forecasts and downside for stocks. U.K. earnings have been a surprising outperformer.
  • Ripple(s) From Surging Dollar

    October 3, 2022
    While a spike in global market volatility has prompted some investors to think a Fed response is imminent, we caution against thinking that intervention is a bullish development.
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    What’s Next: Good, Bad, & Ugly

    September 26, 2022
    The persistence of global inflation could determine which of the three paths central banks may follow and which market qualities investors might consider for their portfolios.
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    Earnings: Trampled Under Foot?

    September 19, 2022
    The bear market has been driven by multiple compression, making valuations look relatively compelling. Yet, expected weakness in earnings may limit the upside potential for stocks.
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    Rate Hikes, Quantitative Tightening, and Bond Yields

    September 13, 2022
    In its quest to reduce inflation, the Federal Reserve appears set to continue to hike interest rates and reduce the size of its balance sheet. Here's a look at what this may mean for the bond market.
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    Home Is Where the Inflation Is

    September 12, 2022
    Central Banks relying on inflation measures based on rentals, rather than home prices, may persist in raising rates, applying more economic brakes despite easing home sales.
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    Are Jobs Livin' on the Edge?

    September 6, 2022
    The August jobs report delivered something for both economic bulls and bears, but what matters more in the near term is the Fed's focus on seeing a continued easing in labor demand.
  • China Q&A: Top 5 Questions

    August 29, 2022
    Topics like inflation, currency, and government policies dominate questions about the world's second-largest economy. Here we provide answers for investors about China.
  • The End of Rate Hikes?

    August 15, 2022
    The signals from central banks that rate hikes, which began last year, may be coming to an end could be welcome news for investors looking ahead to the next 12 months.
  • Both Sides Now: Fed’s Dueling Mandates

    August 8, 2022
    July’s hot jobs report will likely keep the Fed in a hawkish position, but key to watch moving forward is a continued softening in leading labor and inflation indicators
  • The Strong Dollar: Can It Continue?

    August 4, 2022
    A trifecta of factors support the dollar, including the relatively strong performance of the U.S. economy, tightening monetary by the Federal Reserve, and safe-haven buying. These are likely to remain intact into 2023.
  • The Return of Dividends

    August 1, 2022
    Although the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed above stocks' dividend yields earlier this year, dividend payers may continue to reward should the economy continue to slow.
  • The Thrill Is Gone: Earnings Season Kicks Off

    July 25, 2022
    Second-quarter earnings growth will mark an expected deceleration in profits, but focus will likely continue to shift to the pace at which outlooks are downgraded.
  • China's Yo-Yo Economy

    July 18, 2022
    Although an economic rebound in China is underway according to government and private sector data, its economy and stock market may remain volatile.
  • What’s Going On … With Jobs

    July 11, 2022
    The June jobs report was cheered by economic bulls given its strength in level terms, but rates of change among leading indicators don't favor a soft-landing outcome for the economy.
  • Shortages Have Led to Gluts

    July 5, 2022
    Inventory gluts has been bad news for the stocks of companies experiencing them, but could also be indicating an inflation peak, which tends to be an ingredient for market bottoms.
  • Can't Find My Way Home

    June 27, 2022
    A spike in prices and interest rates has dealt a significant blow to housing affordability, elevating the potential for the housing market's weakness to dampen economic growth.
  • Recession: The Risk Is in the Reversal

    June 21, 2022
    Investors often notice the overall direction of markets; missed changes in asset classes under the surface could see a shark attack take a big bite out of unprepared portfolios.
  • 2022 Mid-Year Market Outlook: Under Pressure

    June 16, 2022
    Economic uncertainty may have peaked in the first half of 2022, but it remains high. Stocks are likely to continue to feel the weight of Federal Reserve policy tightening, shrinking market liquidity and slower economic growth.
  • Growth vs. Value: What Does It Mean?

    June 15, 2022
    Performance underneath the surface is sometimes markedly different from the action at the Growth and Value index level.
  • Cryptocurrencies: What Are They?

    June 14, 2022
    Here are the basics.
  • Signs Point to Recession Risk

    June 14, 2022
    Rising inflation, rate hikes, supply-chain problems and the Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to growing recession fears. While recessions are impossible to predict, we think the risk of one—sooner rather than later—has picked up.
  • Cryptocurrencies: Should You Invest in Them?

    June 14, 2022
    Key things to know first.
  • 2022 Mid-Year Outlook: Global Stocks and Economy

    June 6, 2022
    Economic uncertainty may have peaked in the first half of 2022 but could still contribute to volatility and affect market performance for the remainder of the year.
  • 2022 Mid-Year Outlook: U.S. Stocks and Economy

    June 1, 2022
    Sharp, countertrend rallies may continue this year, but aggressive Fed policy, the turning of the liquidity tide, and slower economic growth will likely keep pressure on stocks.
  • The Three Bears?

    May 23, 2022
    Stocks, bonds, and cash are all in a bear market or teetering on the edge of one—a very rare event. Over the past 72 years, there have only been two prior periods with a triple bear.
  • Doom and Gloom: When Will it End?

    May 16, 2022
    Bearish sentiment is becoming a contrarian support; but for now, aggressive Fed action, tightening financial conditions, and the liquidity drain may keep downward pressure on stocks.
  • Bond Market Reset: What's Next?

    May 12, 2022
    Major central banks are hiking interest rates rapidly and shrinking their balance sheets in an effort to "normalize" policy. The question hanging over the market is, "What is a normal policy rate?"
  • Recession in China?

    May 9, 2022
    The world’s second-largest economy and consumer market has likely slipped into a recession, at least by China’s standards.
  • When the Levee Breaks, Panic Is Not a Strategy

    May 2, 2022
    Another burst of market volatility has confirmed that the peak in negative economic consequences—courtesy of tighter policy and slowing growth—is likely still ahead of us.
  • Hedging Stocks Against Rising Rates

    April 25, 2022
    Consider hedging the possible risk of higher interest rates with the addition of short duration stocks, a potential way to manage risk while remaining invested in the markets.
  • Land of Confusion: Soft or Hard?

    April 18, 2022
    With inflation running at a 40-year high, and the Fed having embarked on a rate hike cycle, the burning debate is whether the slowdown ends in a soft landing or a recession.
  • Deglobalization Is Political, Not Economic

    April 11, 2022
    Politics may have little impact on economic globalization or corporate profits—which gives little reason for investors to deglobalize their portfolios despite the headlines.
  • No Quarter (For Consistency)

    April 4, 2022
    Stocks have enjoyed a relief rally of late, but conviction is lacking as the rebound has disproportionately favored low-quality segments of the market.
  • War: Impact on Earnings

    March 28, 2022
    The geopolitical impact on earnings, the most important driver of stock prices, has remained modest so far; global companies appear to be on a path for earnings growth in 2022.
  • Why to Consider Preferred Securities Now

    March 24, 2022
    Prices have fallen sharply, creating an opportunity for income-oriented investors who can ride out the volatility. Investors should understand the risks, however.
  • Cryptocurrencies: How You Could Invest in Them

    March 23, 2022
    There are multiple ways to access the market.
  • Recession Blues: Unfounded Fear?

    March 21, 2022
    Even if a recession is not imminent, the playbook deserves a dusting off as rising inflation, tighter monetary policy, and the war in Ukraine all crimp economic growth prospects.
  • 7 Things You Can Do During a Volatile Stock Market

    March 17, 2022
    What to consider when prices are dropping fast.
  • War in Ukraine: Recession in Europe?

    March 14, 2022
    We believe the odds of a recession in Europe are above average, but still below 50%. We will be watching developments and data closely to see how the economic outlook evolves.
  • The Fed’s Next Move: Ukraine Changes the Picture

    March 2, 2022
    After months of laying the groundwork for monetary policy tightening, the Federal Reserve now faces a sudden change in the economic outlook.
  • Russia-Ukraine: Hit to Russia’s Financial Systems

    February 28, 2022
    Global leaders backed a new round of sanctions on Russia, but it is unclear at this time if these additional measures will be successful at avoiding an energy shock.
  • Russia-Ukraine: Navigating Markets on Edge

    February 25, 2022
    The human toll is immense, but financial market reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been muted so far. Here's what we expect to see in coming days and weeks.
  • Preferred Securities: Balancing Yield with Risk

    February 24, 2022
    Preferred securities’ higher yields may be appealing, but they almost always come with additional risks.
  • Tight Rope: History’s Lessons About Rate Hike Cycles

    February 22, 2022
    The Fed is set to embark on another tightening cycle, and though history serves as a partial guide, there are new tools this time around and an undetermined rate-hike playbook.
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