Markets & Economy

by
Jeffrey Kleintop
August 03, 2020
Let’s take a look at how recent developments may have impacted long-term returns for stock market investors.
by
Kathy Jones
July 30, 2020
The U.S. dollar has been showing signs of weakening, a trend that may underscore the importance of global diversification.
by
Liz Ann Sonders
July 27, 2020
Earnings have so far bested an extremely low bar, but stocks may be discounting too swift a recovery; while concentration remains a risk.
by
Kathy Jones, Christina Shaffer
July 23, 2020
Investors must balance ongoing risks of the coronavirus against the extra yield the bonds provide.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
July 20, 2020
If not extended or replaced, the fading support for the unemployed raises the risk of weakening economic momentum, turning the V-shaped recovery into a W.
by
Liz Ann Sonders
July 13, 2020
Rate of change and inflection points in economic data drive stocks; but in these unique times, the level of said data needs to be considered, too.
by
Michael Townsend
July 09, 2020
Here’s what we’re keeping an eye on in the weeks ahead.
by
Liz Ann Sonders
July 07, 2020
The Fed left rates unchanged near-zero, as expected, while emphasizing that “the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus.”
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
July 06, 2020
In order to help try to make sense of it all, let’s take a look at where the stock market makes sense right now and where it doesn’t.
by
Liz Ann Sonders
June 29, 2020
Since the recent peak in early June, stocks have been consolidating, driven by rising COVID-19 cases and less “shock and awe” from the Fed.
by
Kathy Jones, Collin Martin
June 29, 2020
While we have concerns about the loan market, we don’t believe the CLO market is putting the banking system at risk.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
June 23, 2020
A second wave of global COVID-19 is getting a lot of media attention, but the appearance of a global second wave of cases is primarily driven by the different timing of first waves across countries—rather than second waves within countries.
by
Kathy Jones
June 17, 2020
Interest rates are likely to stay low as markets try to bridge the economic gap to the new normal.
by
Liz Ann Sonders
June 15, 2020
The divergence between the stock market and economy has characterized the past few months; with a convergence possible in the second half of the year.
by
Liz Ann Sonders
June 01, 2020
The dominant question we’ve been getting from investors is about the perceived disconnect between what’s happening on Main Street and what’s happening on Wall Street.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
May 26, 2020
Cyclicals typically lead the market higher when stocks rebound from a bear market and recession—but not this time.
by
Michael Townsend
May 22, 2020
How presidential elections affect the market—and vice versa.
by
Kathy Jones
May 13, 2020
Despite massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, we believe there’s little risk of inflation in the next few years.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
May 11, 2020
It is becoming increasingly clear that the massive global stimulus is being financed by a rise in money, not debt.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
April 27, 2020
For each of the major countries in Asia and Europe, we will be tracking weekly data on key elements of a recovery to assess its pace and success.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
April 27, 2020
The stock market impact of the U.K. crashing out of the EU with no plan would probably be significantly negative, but if the disorderly “no deal” Brexit scenario is avoided the chances seem to favor a partial rebound in U.K. stocks and the British pound.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
April 27, 2020
This year’s rally in Chinese and EM stocks could become vulnerable in the coming months as optimism over a trade deal leads to disappointment over its actual economic and earnings effect.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
April 27, 2020
The divergence in the assessment of the outlook reflected in the stock and bond markets may be decided by the ongoing convergence in earnings growth expectations across regions.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
April 27, 2020
Reversals in the long-term relative performance of growth and value stocks, large and small cap stocks, and U.S. and international stocks have been marked by yield curve inversions.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
April 27, 2020
Stock markets around the world have posted steady double-digit gains this year on a rebound of valuations. However, volatility may return without support from earnings growth.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
April 27, 2020
Recent developments have caused markets to focus on geopolitical risk, with more to come in the month of May.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
April 27, 2020
This recession is the result of a shock, not the natural end result of a slow build-up of excesses. This may mean the recession and bear market could be deeper, but also that the duration may be shorter.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
April 17, 2020
The most widely used measure of economic activity, gross domestic product (GDP), will soon be released for the first quarter by different countries.
by
Kathy Jones
March 25, 2020
The recent volatility in the bond market has been unprecedented.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
March 16, 2020
We all know what is driving the market selloff, COVID-19, but who is doing the selling?
by
Kathy Jones
March 03, 2020
Historically, there has been no better hedge against an equity market decline than long-term Treasury bonds.
by
Liz Ann Sonders
February 28, 2020
Will the country’s rising tide of debt affect your portfolio?
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
February 28, 2020
We answer key questions about the coronavirus impact on the economy, markets and what investors should do.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
February 18, 2020
Dire predictions may have driven commodity prices to over-react to the downside; and now they may be poised to partially rebound.
by
Kathy Jones
February 05, 2020
With China’s industrial heartland at the center of the epidemic, the ripple effects may be larger and longer-lasting than in previous outbreaks.
by
Liz Ann Sonders
January 27, 2020
As expected, a long and strong move up in stocks attracts more and more believers and adherents, which can stretch sentiment to extremes, like now.
by
Kathy Jones
January 24, 2020
Not sure which to choose? Here are some things to consider about individual bonds vs. bond funds.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
January 21, 2020
The receding risks posed by Brexit and the trade wars should provide a tailwind to Europe’s economy.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
January 06, 2020
Top Ten Global Risks For Investors In 2020
by
Michael Townsend
December 21, 2019
The SECURE Act will affect retirees, new parents, small business owners and employees, and could have a major impact on estate planning.
by
Liz Ann Sonders
December 16, 2019
Next year is set to start on a high note, with consumers and the Fed keeping the economy and market afloat; but risks remain elevated, including trade and elections.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
December 09, 2019
Jeffrey Kleintop’s full 2020 outlook for global stocks and the economy.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
November 25, 2019
As we head into 2020, investors should be cautious in assuming that the return of central bank balance sheet growth means stocks will follow along.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
November 11, 2019
A wide range of outcomes from -10% to +40% may lie ahead of emerging market stocks depending on the timing and details of a trade deal.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
October 28, 2019
The last global economic cycle ended with a housing bust; will the bust in auto sales end this cycle?
by
Kathy Jones
October 17, 2019
With Treasury bond yields near all-time lows, many are reluctant to invest in longer-term bonds—but sitting in very short-term investments could mean lower income if short-term rates decline. What’s an investor to do?
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
October 14, 2019
Fortunately, stocks are nowhere near that overvalued, based on the price-to-earnings ratio. But, if we take a more refined look at historical stock market valuations at peaks and lows, we find some cause for concern.
by
Kathy Jones
October 02, 2019
The bond market is large and complex, so it helps to focus on bonds that provide diversification, stability and income.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
September 30, 2019
After monetary policymakers took action to lower interest rates and ease financial conditions, they have been asking for fiscal policymakers to enact stimulus though stepped-up government spending and tax cuts—they may be starting to get their wish.
by
Kathy Jones
September 19, 2019
The Federal Reserve is reluctant to cut its policy rate below zero, but markets could drive Treasury yields negative anyway.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
September 16, 2019
We see five main options for Brexit in the coming months; three result in a near-term resolution while two options result in a further delay or “no deal” Brexit.
by
Collin Martin
September 13, 2019
The London Interbank Offered Rate, a key benchmark for many types of loans and investments, is expected to disappear in 2021. Here’s how the phase-out could affect investors.
by
Collin Martin
September 13, 2019
As the 2021 LIBOR phase-out deadline approaches, officials are warning investors to prepare for a world without the key benchmark rate.
by
Michael Townsend
September 06, 2019
Congress is getting back to work after a six-week recess. Here’s a look at Washington issues that could affect investors.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
September 03, 2019
If Japan represents what the debt and demographic future looks like for many countries, then the future for investors in a world of negative bond yields may lead to more stock market exposure.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
August 19, 2019
If rate cuts aren’t seen as enough to address slowing growth and policymakers turn to direct currency intervention, the resulting currency war could be bad news for investors.
by
August 12, 2019
Annuities can help provide income and protection against market dips—but which kind should you choose? Vice president of income planning Rob Williams explains the differences between immediate fixed annuities and variable annuities.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
August 05, 2019
Another round of trade tariffs is an additional hit to manufacturing, potentially deepening the global slowdown into a recession, despite the efforts of the Fed and other central banks.
by
August 02, 2019
What is your cost basis? Whether you’re a newbie or seasoned investor, determining your tax cost basis can help you save on taxes. Here’s how.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
July 22, 2019
Economic indicators don’t have to be complicated to work. We look at four alternative indicators for the main driver of the global economy and assess how interest rate cuts might impact them.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
July 08, 2019
Valuations suggest international stocks may produce above average, double-digit annualized total returns over the next 10 years, in contrast to below average, mid-single digit returns for U.S. stocks.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
June 24, 2019
In our 2020 Global Market Outlook, we cited many indicators pointing to heightened risk of a recession; now we highlight increasing signs of a recovery from one.
by
Liz Ann Sonders
June 14, 2019
It doesn’t take much of a market downturn these days for investors to pull in their bullish horns; but more may be needed for market stabilization.
by
Liz Ann Sonders, Jeffrey Kleintop, Kathy Jones
March 05, 2019
U.S. stocks have been fairly resilient even as coronavirus hotspots flare up around the country. How long can it last?
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
March 05, 2019
Economic growth for many of the world’s biggest economies is expected to slow in 2019, yet China appears to be the only one planning on implementing economic stimulus. While a bounce from China’s stimulus is possible, we believe global growth is likely to slow as the economic cycle nears a peak, leaving investors to consider reducing volatility by trimming the more volatile asset classes such as emerging market stocks.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
March 05, 2019
There are some reasons to think that the probability of a repeat of a past crisis has eased. The changes we have seen should help reduce the vulnerability of the global system to shocks like those of the past. Of course, risk has not been entirely eliminated from the system.
by
Liz Ann Sonders
February 26, 2019
Why sometimes doing nothing may be the best response in the midst of rampant market volatility.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
February 04, 2019
As investors ponder what this year may hold in store for the markets, the inter-relationships between politics, economics, fiscal policy, monetary policy, and corporate actions can seem very complex. Investors may feel overwhelmed and seek a simple answer. When people feel there is a situation that is out of their control or is too complicated to analyze, they often fall back on rules of thumb to make decisions.
by
Liz Ann Sonders
January 28, 2019
The Conference Board’s release of December’s Leading Economic Index was notable for its continued trend deterioration; and the second decline in three months.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
January 22, 2019
After last year’s U.S. tax cuts contributed to better growth and market performance, a number of major countries are looking to reverse the declines in growth and voter satisfaction with tax cuts in 2019.
by
Liz Ann Sonders
January 14, 2019
The economy and earnings grabbed headlines last week; with a sharp acceleration in real GDP growth, and concerns about earnings thanks to Facebook’s face plant.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
January 07, 2019
In recent months, stock market participants have been focusing on downside risks in 2019, but not all risks are to the downside.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
December 10, 2018
Global growth is likely to slow in 2019 as the economic cycle nears a peak. International stocks may continue to see heightened volatility and could enter a bear market if key indicators continue on their current path.
by
Kathy Jones
December 05, 2018
Ten-year Treasury yields should move higher in 2020 as recession fears ease.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
December 05, 2018
Unless global growth reaccelerates, international stocks may remain stuck within the volatile ranges seen during the past two years.
by
Liz Ann Sonders
December 05, 2018
The U.S. economy likely will remain split in early 2020.
by
Kathy Jones
November 28, 2018
After more than two years of steadily rising interest rates, we believe 2019 could mark the peak in U.S. Treasury yields for the current business cycle. However, while the prospect of more stable or lower interest rates may be positive for bond investors, we expect the road ahead to be bumpy.
by
Jeffrey Kleintop
October 29, 2018
Recent stock market behavior and our belief in heightened risk of a peak in the global economic cycle in the next 6-18 months, makes it a good time to consider what has happened to stocks in a typical recession and bear market.
by
Liz Ann Sonders
October 24, 2018
Investors often focus on the “good/bad” level of economic indicators, without regard to the stock market’s keen ability to sniff out “better/worse” inflection points.
by
September 27, 2018
A look at how donor-advised funds and private foundations compare.
by
Hayden Adams
September 27, 2018
Answers to the most commonly asked questions about the tax code overhaul.
by
Liz Ann Sonders
September 10, 2018
The August payroll report was generally strong, with a kick into higher gear for wages. Will “Main Street” feel better than “Wall Street” this year?
by
Liz Ann Sonders
June 18, 2018
Total credit market debt is stratospheric, in spite of household/financial sector deleveraging; and with fiscal policy blowing out the deficit, it’s going to get worse.
by
Liz Ann Sonders
June 04, 2018
The May employment report was gangbusters, with strength across most components, including payrolls, the unemployment rate and wage growth. Can it continue?
by
February 26, 2018

Every month in the immediate aftermath of the release of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) I put together a small deck together for Schwab’s Operating Committee highlighting the overall data and some of the key takeaways. The latest report—out last week—was notable in its strength; and in stark contrast to the worries expressed by some clients lately about the risk of a recession in the near term.

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February 22, 2018
Schwab's view on the consumer staples sector, which includes consumer items that tend to be viewed as household necessities.
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February 22, 2018
Schwab's view on the energy sector, which encompasses companies that help produce and distribute energy.
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February 22, 2018
Schwab's view on the health care sector covers health care equipment and services as well as  pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies.
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February 22, 2018
Schwab's view on the information technology sector, which covers most makers and providers of computer, data, and electronic equipment and services.
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February 22, 2018
Schwab's view on the materials sector, which describes an array of commodity-related manufacturing industries.
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February 22, 2018
Schwab's view on the real estate sector, which covers companies involved in real estate and includes equity REITs.
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February 22, 2018
Schwab's view on the telecommunications sector, including operators of telecom networks and providers of communications and data transmission services.
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February 22, 2018
Schwab's view on the utilities sector, which covers a variety of industries that generate and deliver power and water.