Markets & Economy

Markets & Economy

  • Stock Market Volatility: Recession Worries Mount

    September 29, 2022
    What our experts think about the recent stock market drop.
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    What’s Next: Good, Bad, & Ugly

    September 26, 2022
    The persistence of global inflation could determine which of the three paths central banks may follow and which market qualities investors might consider for their portfolios.
  • With Inflation Offsides, The Fed Keeps Hiking

    September 21, 2022
    As expected, the Federal Reserve raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 75 basis points to 3% to 3.25%, citing high inflation as its primary concern.
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    Earnings: Trampled Under Foot?

    September 19, 2022
    The bear market has been driven by multiple compression, making valuations look relatively compelling. Yet, expected weakness in earnings may limit the upside potential for stocks.
  • Schwab Market Perspective: Determined to Rise

    September 16, 2022
    Will anything tempt the Federal Reserve from its aggressive course on interest rates? The odds aren't good.
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    Rate Hikes, Quantitative Tightening, and Bond Yields

    September 13, 2022
    In its quest to reduce inflation, the Federal Reserve appears set to continue to hike interest rates and reduce the size of its balance sheet. Here's a look at what this may mean for the bond market.
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    Home Is Where the Inflation Is

    September 12, 2022
    Central Banks relying on inflation measures based on rentals, rather than home prices, may persist in raising rates, applying more economic brakes despite easing home sales.
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    Are Jobs Livin' on the Edge?

    September 6, 2022
    The August jobs report delivered something for both economic bulls and bears, but what matters more in the near term is the Fed's focus on seeing a continued easing in labor demand.
  • China Q&A: Top 5 Questions

    August 29, 2022
    Topics like inflation, currency, and government policies dominate questions about the world's second-largest economy. Here we provide answers for investors about China.
  • Will Rising Federal Debt Slow Economic Growth?

    August 19, 2022
    Over the past 70 years, rising government debt generally has been accompanied by weaker economic activity. But it’s not a simple relationship.
  • The End of Rate Hikes?

    August 15, 2022
    The signals from central banks that rate hikes, which began last year, may be coming to an end could be welcome news for investors looking ahead to the next 12 months.
  • Both Sides Now: Fed’s Dueling Mandates

    August 8, 2022
    July’s hot jobs report will likely keep the Fed in a hawkish position, but key to watch moving forward is a continued softening in leading labor and inflation indicators
  • The Strong Dollar: Can It Continue?

    August 4, 2022
    A trifecta of factors support the dollar, including the relatively strong performance of the U.S. economy, tightening monetary by the Federal Reserve, and safe-haven buying. These are likely to remain intact into 2023.
  • The Return of Dividends

    August 1, 2022
    Although the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed above stocks' dividend yields earlier this year, dividend payers may continue to reward should the economy continue to slow.
  • The Thrill Is Gone: Earnings Season Kicks Off

    July 25, 2022
    Second-quarter earnings growth will mark an expected deceleration in profits, but focus will likely continue to shift to the pace at which outlooks are downgraded.
  • China's Yo-Yo Economy

    July 18, 2022
    Although an economic rebound in China is underway according to government and private sector data, its economy and stock market may remain volatile.
  • What’s Going On … With Jobs

    July 11, 2022
    The June jobs report was cheered by economic bulls given its strength in level terms, but rates of change among leading indicators don't favor a soft-landing outcome for the economy.
  • Shortages Have Led to Gluts

    July 5, 2022
    Inventory gluts has been bad news for the stocks of companies experiencing them, but could also be indicating an inflation peak, which tends to be an ingredient for market bottoms.
  • Can't Find My Way Home

    June 27, 2022
    A spike in prices and interest rates has dealt a significant blow to housing affordability, elevating the potential for the housing market's weakness to dampen economic growth.
  • Recession: The Risk Is in the Reversal

    June 21, 2022
    Investors often notice the overall direction of markets; missed changes in asset classes under the surface could see a shark attack take a big bite out of unprepared portfolios.
  • 2022 Mid-Year Market Outlook: Under Pressure

    June 16, 2022
    Economic uncertainty may have peaked in the first half of 2022, but it remains high. Stocks are likely to continue to feel the weight of Federal Reserve policy tightening, shrinking market liquidity and slower economic growth.
  • Growth vs. Value: What Does It Mean?

    June 15, 2022
    Performance underneath the surface is sometimes markedly different from the action at the Growth and Value index level.
  • Cryptocurrencies: Should You Invest in Them?

    June 14, 2022
    Key things to know first.
  • Cryptocurrencies: What Are They?

    June 14, 2022
    Here are the basics.
  • Signs Point to Recession Risk

    June 14, 2022
    Rising inflation, rate hikes, supply-chain problems and the Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to growing recession fears. While recessions are impossible to predict, we think the risk of one—sooner rather than later—has picked up.
  • 2022 Mid-Year Outlook: Global Stocks and Economy

    June 6, 2022
    Economic uncertainty may have peaked in the first half of 2022 but could still contribute to volatility and affect market performance for the remainder of the year.
  • 2022 Mid-Year Outlook: U.S. Stocks and Economy

    June 1, 2022
    Sharp, countertrend rallies may continue this year, but aggressive Fed policy, the turning of the liquidity tide, and slower economic growth will likely keep pressure on stocks.
  • The Three Bears?

    May 23, 2022
    Stocks, bonds, and cash are all in a bear market or teetering on the edge of one—a very rare event. Over the past 72 years, there have only been two prior periods with a triple bear.
  • Doom and Gloom: When Will it End?

    May 16, 2022
    Bearish sentiment is becoming a contrarian support; but for now, aggressive Fed action, tightening financial conditions, and the liquidity drain may keep downward pressure on stocks.
  • Bond Market Reset: What's Next?

    May 12, 2022
    Major central banks are hiking interest rates rapidly and shrinking their balance sheets in an effort to "normalize" policy. The question hanging over the market is, "What is a normal policy rate?"
  • Recession in China?

    May 9, 2022
    The world’s second-largest economy and consumer market has likely slipped into a recession, at least by China’s standards.
  • When the Levee Breaks, Panic Is Not a Strategy

    May 2, 2022
    Another burst of market volatility has confirmed that the peak in negative economic consequences—courtesy of tighter policy and slowing growth—is likely still ahead of us.
  • Hedging Stocks Against Rising Rates

    April 25, 2022
    Consider hedging the possible risk of higher interest rates with the addition of short duration stocks, a potential way to manage risk while remaining invested in the markets.
  • Land of Confusion: Soft or Hard?

    April 18, 2022
    With inflation running at a 40-year high, and the Fed having embarked on a rate hike cycle, the burning debate is whether the slowdown ends in a soft landing or a recession.
  • Schwab Sector Views: What's Up With Oil?

    April 14, 2022
    The energy picture is anything but clear. There are numerous scenarios that could result in much higher or lower oil prices. Until there is more clarity, we think it's prudent to maintain a market-weight Energy sector allocation.
  • Deglobalization Is Political, Not Economic

    April 11, 2022
    Politics may have little impact on economic globalization or corporate profits—which gives little reason for investors to deglobalize their portfolios despite the headlines.
  • No Quarter (For Consistency)

    April 4, 2022
    Stocks have enjoyed a relief rally of late, but conviction is lacking as the rebound has disproportionately favored low-quality segments of the market.
  • War: Impact on Earnings

    March 28, 2022
    The geopolitical impact on earnings, the most important driver of stock prices, has remained modest so far; global companies appear to be on a path for earnings growth in 2022.
  • Why to Consider Preferred Securities Now

    March 24, 2022
    Prices have fallen sharply, creating an opportunity for income-oriented investors who can ride out the volatility. Investors should understand the risks, however.
  • Cryptocurrencies: How You Could Invest in Them

    March 23, 2022
    There are multiple ways to access the market.
  • Recession Blues: Unfounded Fear?

    March 21, 2022
    Even if a recession is not imminent, the playbook deserves a dusting off as rising inflation, tighter monetary policy, and the war in Ukraine all crimp economic growth prospects.
  • 7 Things You Can Do During a Volatile Stock Market

    March 17, 2022
    What to consider when prices are dropping fast.
  • War in Ukraine: Recession in Europe?

    March 14, 2022
    We believe the odds of a recession in Europe are above average, but still below 50%. We will be watching developments and data closely to see how the economic outlook evolves.
  • The Fed’s Next Move: Ukraine Changes the Picture

    March 2, 2022
    After months of laying the groundwork for monetary policy tightening, the Federal Reserve now faces a sudden change in the economic outlook.
  • Russia-Ukraine: Hit to Russia’s Financial Systems

    February 28, 2022
    Global leaders backed a new round of sanctions on Russia, but it is unclear at this time if these additional measures will be successful at avoiding an energy shock.
  • Russia-Ukraine: Navigating Markets on Edge

    February 25, 2022
    The human toll is immense, but financial market reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been muted so far. Here's what we expect to see in coming days and weeks.
  • Preferred Securities: Balancing Yield with Risk

    February 24, 2022
    Preferred securities’ higher yields may be appealing, but they almost always come with additional risks.
  • Geopolitical Risk Update: Russia-Ukraine

    February 22, 2022
    We believe that diversified investors don’t need to take action to protect their portfolios from events in Ukraine, which are unlikely to affect broader market and economic trends.
  • Tight Rope: History’s Lessons About Rate Hike Cycles

    February 22, 2022
    The Fed is set to embark on another tightening cycle, and though history serves as a partial guide, there are new tools this time around and an undetermined rate-hike playbook.
  • Why Invest Internationally?

    February 14, 2022
    A large home bias, even with international sales exposure, may not diversify investors across sectors, endangering financial goals when new economic cycles shift long term trends.
  • SPACs: What Investors Should Know Now

    February 7, 2022
    The speculative exuberance around special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) seems to be over, but investors still have questions about them.
  • Bond Market: Waiting for Liftoff

    February 3, 2022
    The Federal Reserve is expected to starting hiking short-term rates at its March meeting. But how fast will the pace be?
  • Guide to Geopolitical Risk: Russia-Ukraine

    January 31, 2022
    The human costs of military action are unmeasurable. Yet, the stock market reaction to an incursion or invasion of Ukraine may echo those of the past with little measurable impact for diversified investors.
  • What Do Rising Rates Mean for Stock Investors?

    January 18, 2022
    Global benchmark yields are moving higher along with economic sentiment. We expect yields to remain positively correlated to market returns, favoring cyclical and value stocks.
  • The Fed’s Policy Tightening Plan: A One-Two Punch

    January 11, 2022
    Beginning quantitative tightening soon after rate hikes is a big departure from the Federal Reserve’s past policy.
  • We Can Work It Out: Update on Labor Market

    January 10, 2022
    The December payrolls report was mostly underwhelming and underscored persistent virus-related data distortions within the labor market.
  • 2022 International Bonds Outlook: Neutral, for Now

    December 23, 2021
    A change in fundamentals could make international bonds more attractive.
  • Top Global Risks of 2022

    December 20, 2021
    Despite the strong year for stocks in 2021, markets have confidently priced in some negative trends gathering more momentum in 2022 which may help markets, should trends reverse.
  • Understanding Municipal Revenue Bonds

    December 17, 2021
    Revenue bonds account for nearly two-thirds of all investment-grade municipal bonds outstanding, but they tend to get less attention than general obligation bonds. Here’s what investors should know.
  • Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities: FAQs about TIPS

    December 7, 2021
    TIPS can be a buffer against long-term inflation, but TIPS investing isn’t always straightforward. Here are answers to frequently asked questions.