Services make up more of the economy, jobs, and the stock market. The time has come to focus on services data to get a sense of the overall economic picture.
The age of abundance has given way to an age of scarcity, while the pro-cyclical version of inflation may have given way to the counter-cyclical version.
Supply chain issues are worsening, increasing the risk to sales, production, and inflation. European stocks may offer an opportunity to avoid these risks.
China’s recent stock market pullback has been in line with the average annual drawdown; historically, this volatility has tended to produce double-digit annualized gains.
Although earnings season has a ways to go, the results have been strong enough to significantly boost growth expectations, while also easing some valuation concerns.
As quickly as it soared to the moon, GameStop came back down to earth; but the lessons learned are key to turning day trading speculators into longer-term investors.
December brought the first payrolls decline since last April; with leisure/hospitality—and women—bearing the brunt of the weakness. Expect more economic “scarring” to come.
