Washington: What to Watch Now

A bipartisan group of senators struck a deal on November 9th to re-open the government, with seven Democrats and one independent joining 52 of the 53 Republicans to reach the elusive 60-vote supermajority needed to move forward.

The House of Representatives, which has not been in Washington since September 19th, will reconvene to consider the legislation on November 12th. President Donald Trump has indicated he will sign the measure into law if it passes, making it likely that the government will fully reopen by the end of the week.

Key elements of the agreement include:

• Funding government operations through January 30, 2026. The bill will reopen the government via a temporary measure (a "continuing resolution") that extends funding for all government operations through January 30th, 2026.
• Passing three appropriations bills. The bill includes a package of three of the 12 appropriations bills, which will fund Agriculture, Military Construction and Veterans, and the Legislative Branch. The Agriculture appropriations bill is critical because it includes funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which provides food assistance and other aid to about 42 million Americans. It has been in limbo since the beginning of the month, when funding ran out. All programs and agencies covered by the three appropriations measures will be fully funded through the end of the fiscal year on September 30, 2026.
• Providing clarity for federal workers. The plan will ensure that all federal workers receive back pay. It also ensures the administration cannot fire federal workers between now and January 30, and it reinstates the approximately 4,100 federal workers who were fired earlier in the shutdown.

What is not included in the agreement to reopen the government is any plan to extend the expiring subsidies for purchasing health care insurance through the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This was a key line in the sand for Democrats and the central reason that the shutdown lasted so long. With the subsidies expiring at the end of the year, about 22 million Americans saw higher health care premiums when the open enrollment window for ACA insurance began on November 1st. Democrats had insisted that an extension of those subsidies must be part of any plan to re-open the government; Republicans said that they would consider the issue only once the government was open.

In the end, Democrats received only a promise from Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) that he would hold a vote on the issue no later than the second week of December. There is, of course, no guarantee that an extension will pass the Senate, and no guarantee that the House will consider the measure even if it does pass the Senate. The situation has exposed a deep rift among Democrats on Capitol Hill, with many of them furious at their colleagues for what they see as a capitulation on a critical issue.

The Supreme Court heard arguments challenging tariffs. The highly anticipated oral arguments last week lasted more than two and a half hours. At issue is whether Trump exceeded his authority in using a 1970s law, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), to impose the so-called "reciprocal" tariffs on imports from about 100 countries, as well some of the tariffs imposed on imports from Canada, China and Mexico. A lower court in May ruled that the president exceeded his authority and an appeals court upheld that decision in August. Last week, Supreme Court justices seemed skeptical of the administration's arguments, raising the possibility that the bulk of the president's tariffs could be ruled illegal. That could trigger a complicated refund process for more than $100 billion in tariffs paid to date. The timing for a decision is uncertain, though some court watchers have said that early December is the soonest a decision could be rendered. It is important to note, however, that the administration does have other tools available to it for imposing tariffs, regardless of what the court decides in this case. Tariffs are not going away anytime soon.

Three takeaways from last week's elections. Voters went to the polls across the country on November 4th, mostly for local elections. But there were several races with national implications. Here are my three takeaways:

• It was a big night for Democrats. They swept into power in Virginia, won the New Jersey governor's race by much more than expected, and overwhelmingly approved the California ballot initiative to redraw the state's congressional districts and Democrats may potentially gain as many as five additional seats in Congress in 2026. Democrats also won three races for the Pennsylvania Supreme Court that will preserve that court's left-leaning majority. And Zohan Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist, was elected mayor of New York City, winning more votes than any mayoral candidate there since 1969.
• Republicans struggle without Trump on the ballot. The president himself posted on his social media feed about this on Election Night. It's a reminder that Trump is a political unicorn, and that the coalition of voters he built to win the 2024 election cannot necessarily be counted on to vote Republican in other years. This will be a big issue as we head toward next year's midterms.
• Be careful of reading too much into this year's election results. The scope of the Democrat victories makes it hard to see the 2025 election as anything but a rebuke to the president and his policies. But off-year elections tend to be unique to their local circumstances. And there were only handful of states that had major statewide races. So extrapolating meaning for the 2026 midterms is hard—it is a long way between now and then, and we've seen how quickly things can change in politics these days. There is no question that Democrats feel some momentum, and momentum matters in politics. But I'm not changing my outlook for the 2026 midterms: Democrats have a slight advantage for recapturing the majority in the House of Representatives, but Republicans remain favored to hold on to their majority in the Senate.

There were two big retirement announcements in the House of Representatives. Most of the headlines were about former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who announced that she would not run for re-election, ending a historic 38-year career. But the announcement that may have a bigger political impact was the decision by moderate Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) not to seek a fifth term representing the sprawling rural district in the northern part of Maine. Golden's announcement opens up a key race in the battle for control of the House in 2026. Golden won re-election in 2024 in a district that Trump won by 10 points, making Golden the Democrat representing the most right-leaning district in the country. A Republican will be favored to flip this district in 2026, which would be key to the Republicans holding on to their slim majority in the House.

A new House Democrat will be sworn in this week. Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva (D-Ariz.) won a special election in Arizona on September 23, but with the House in recess since September 19, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) had declined to administer the oath of office. Johnson announced on Monday that Grijalva would be sworn in later this week when the House reconvenes to consider the Senate agreement to reopen the federal government. Grijalva's arrival in Washington will mean there are 219 Republicans and 214 Democrats in the House, with two vacancies to be filled by special elections in the coming weeks. The razor-thin margin will come into play this week as Johnson can only lose two Republican votes on the bill to reopen the government. But it is expected that at least some moderate Democrats will support the measure, likely giving Johnson more wiggle room.

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